Cox rebuilds codpiece in bid to convince confused Tory MPs to vote tonight for May’s deal
On what promises to be the most dramatic day since the last dramatic day, the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox QC has already delivered one of the best tweets ever in the short and ignoble history of political tweeting.
Veteran news anchor Jon Snow tweeted first thing today that a lawyer friend had been in touch with secret info about murky goings on at the heart of government over the latest Brexit shenanigans. It read oddly though. Not so much “a bloke down the pub told me” – more “a bloke down the Garrick Club told me.”
Tweeted Snow:
“A Lawyer contact tells me that the legal world is aware that the Attorney General said NO last night to the validity of Mrs May’s ‘new EU deal’… he been told to go away and find a way to say YES: A cohort of lawyers has been summoned.”
The legal world is aware… A cohort of lawyers has been summoned… sounds hammy. All a bit Rumpole of the Bailey gone wrong.
Cox’s glorious response was to tweet one word in reply:
“Bollocks,” said the Attorney General to Snow’s assertion.
Why does this matter? The outcome of today rests to a large extent on the judgment of Geoffrey “codpiece” Cox. His codpiece, which had collapsed, has been rebuilt from the wreckage in the last 48 hours.
If Cox decides that he can endorse the modest changes secured by, er, himself, in Brussels, and say that it alters his own legal opinion about the possibility of the UK being trapped forever in the Irish border backstop, then it will do a lot to convince those Tory MPs looking for an excuse to vote for May’s deal.
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis has already indicated that, at the time of writing, he will consider voting for the deal if Cox addresses the Commons and provides sufficient assurance. This is a potentially major development that will spark the interest of other Tory rebels. Davis had looked like an irreconcilable hold out. Yet here he is being pragmatic and saying that he might be persuaded.
Tory MPs unsure what to do are also looking to the DUP for guidance. If the DUP can accept these changes and vote for the deal this evening, then all but the most die hard of Tory ERG types could flip.
There is also the ERG Star Chamber, in which legal experts, and some of their over-enthusiastic friends eager to be involved, are gathered to rule on whether the changes are sufficient. Will they be split? It would be a metaphor for whole sorry process if the ERG Star Chamber cannot agree a line.
What are they arguing over? May’s mercy dash to Strasbourg last night produced the publication of two documents, the first relating to a unilateral declaration on the backstop. In essence it suggests the UK could start a fight to get out of the backstop if it found itself trapped. The second document relates to the EU and the UK promising to find “alternative arrangements” – lasers on the border, videos of old episodes of 1970s tech programme Tomorrow’s World to be provided, transport ministers to be equipped with a ZX Spectrum each – as quickly as possible to avoid the need for the blasted backstop.
In essence, the Brexit process has become ever more legally complex and deeply confusing for anyone who is not a lawyer. No wonder many MPs are perplexed, worried and looking for guidance.
The brute politics of this are simple though. May has only hours to win over 118 MPs to get her deal through this evening. It is an epic task. She and the Tory whips must get the Tory rebellion against the deal down to about 25 votes. They need the DUP. And then they need 25 to 30 Labour MPs and independents to back the deal on the basis that they want Brexit to be honoured and don’t want the chaos of a general election or whatever else is in store.
No pressure then.