Crisis is testing the competence of governments

There are 89,074 confirmed cases of coronavirus infections globally, and 3,045 confirmed deaths so far. The majority of cases, and fatalities, are still confined to China where the figures stand at 80,026 infected and  2912 dead. But new hotspots are emerging – and there are worries that large numbers of cases have not been detected, or in some cases have been concealed, are growing.

South Korea has so far recorded 4,212 case of coronavirus and 26 deaths. In Italy there are 1694 cases and 34 dead, with cases nearly doubling over the weekend.

In Iran official figures put the numbers at 978 cases and 54 deaths. The true numbers might be higher. BBC Persian has reported at least 210 deaths. Even if there have only been 54 deaths this would be an unusually high mortality rate suggesting a large number of unreported cases.

There also fears that the true number of cases is far higher than reported in both Japan – 256 infections and 6 deaths – and the US – 86 infections and 2 deaths.

Cases in Britain have started to climb, but so far there only 36 recorded cases.

The disease is no respecter of borders, or ideology.

The initial outbreak of coronavirus in China was seen by some, including myself, as something of a political morality play. The slow response and suppression of information by local Chinese officials fearful of retribution from the centre letting the virus spread seemed to be a parable on the dangers of authoritarian systems. This interpretation was so tempting not just because it suited the political inclinations of many commentators in the West but also because there was a great deal of truth to this interpretation.

Indeed, Iran seems to have faced similar problems to China. The government is thought to have concealed the problem, initially allowing the disease to spread. When it admitted that there were cases of coronavirus in Iran it sought to downplay the problem – even as the deputy health minister in charge of the response sweated profusely on live TV only to later admit he had caught the virus himself. Even now it seems the true scale of the problem is not being admitted to, as discussed above.

Equally, South Korea has shown how effective a responsive democratic system can be. While it has the largest number of cases outside of China its response so far has been swift and relatively effective. The same can be said of Italy. While they respectively have the second and third highest number of cases in the world now this is partly the result of their governments’ rolling out widespread testing fairly rapidly once the scale of the issue became apparent. They have also managed to impose forms of quarantine without soldering people into their home as happened in some parts of China.

The reality is more complicated. While China’s authoritarian system delayed its response, authoritarianism did help it quickly impose draconian mass quarantines when the problem was acknowledged. Despite potential excesses, and the impediment of helpful work by civil society, this response seems to have been broadly effective. The rate of new infections has apparently been slowing for about a week now.

Meanwhile, Iran – despite being less authoritarian than China – is still refusing to admit to the scale of the problem, or impose quarantines. Coronavirus is not just a test of the relative strengths of democratic vs authoritarian regimes, it is also a a test of governmental competence.

In this regard a number of major democratic regimes seem to have responded poorly thanks to an unwillingness to admit to the problem, and a lack of basic competence. Japan’s government, apparently keen to keep reported rates of infection low in the run up to the Tokyo Olympics, mishandled the crisis from the start.

Its reaction to infected cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, has been roundly criticised. The subsequent failure to conduct coronavirus tests on large scale, even on medical professionals who had been exposed to the disease, has attracted even more opprobrium. Many suspect the number of infected in Japan may be far higher than official figures suggest. Now Japan has closed all its schools and is encouraging employees to work from home.

The US response reads almost like a checklist of errors. The coronavirus test kits sent out by the Centre for Disease Control were faulty and have only been slowly replaced. The CDC also imposed strict guidelines on who could be tested. As a result, a number of people who did not meet this criteria were not tested – even when doctors strongly suspected they were suffering from coronavirus.

Now it seems very likely that there are far more cases of coronavirus in the US than have been officially recorded. In the state of Washington, where the first two confirmed deaths have just occurred, there is evidence the disease has been circulating for weeks. Experts estimate there could be anywhere between 300 and 1500 cases in the state alone.

The dysfunctions of the American system is also making effective response difficult. The Trump White House seems fixated on playing down the danger of the virus, and limiting its impact on the stockmarket, in this crucial election year. Trump has even called the Democrats’ response to the disease a “hoax”. Meanwhile, stories of coronavirus tests resulting in large medical bills will likely discourage many from getting tested.

The British response has also left a lot to be desired. Some good fundamental steps – like quarantining suspected cases and encouraging people at risk to self-isolate – have been taken. However, the government’s petty feud with the BBC saw ministers refuse to appear on its shows to address the public and explain what measures the government was taking, until a few days ago.

Equally, Boris Johnson appears to have been AWOL – only re-entering the public eye today to chair the first emergency COBRA meeting on the epidemic. Still, Sadiq Khan was not invited to attend – despite London being the UK’s largest city and an international transport hub. There is even an ongoing debate about whether Britain should withdraw from the EU’s early-warning pandemic system as part of Brexit. Those who seem determined to play politics with coronavirus need to realise the disease does not care.