Data behind lockdown delay too gloomy

New data has revealed that the estimates used to justify the delay to the end of lockdown may have been unduly pessimistic because vaccines work better than expected.

The projections presented this week to SAGE, the government’s science advisory body, outlined a range of scenarios in which a double dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine was assumed to provide between 85 and 90 per cent protection against severe disease from the Delta variant. For two Pfizer doses, the estimate was 87 to 91 per cent.

According to the latest real-world PHE data, the figures look to be higher than both best-case scenarios, at 92 per cent and 96 per cent respectively.

Even this modest change in efficacy matters a great deal. Prof Mark Woolhouse, a member of SAGE’s Spi-M modelling committee, said: “A vaccine that provides 98 per cent protection against, say, hospitalisation is — in one sense — twice as good as one that provides 96 per cent protection. It halves the residual risk from 4 per cent to 2 per cent. If that’s been underestimated in the models, it could make a big difference.”

Projections seen by SAGE had suggested it was realistic to expect 40,000 deaths from a summer wave. But according to the University of Warwick’s modelling, the higher efficacy figures could mean a death toll of around 7,000 to 17,000 instead.

Unfortunately, the encouraging data does nothing to change the lens through which it will be interpreted. Despite some noises from senior ministers and scientists that we must learn to live with the virus, pragmatism is still playing second fiddle to a metric that has governed our lives for 16 months: case numbers.

Cases of the Delta variant have quadrupled since early May, albeit from the lowest levels since September. But the bulk of new infections are among people under 24 whose risk from the virus is negligible. The vaccine rollout is going so well that over-18s are now being called up, while 30 million of the most vulnerable have now had two doses.

Boris Johnson has disingenuously dubbed the 19 July the “terminus date” – how can he possibly know it will be the last? Even so, yet more evidence that vaccines have severed the link between infections and hospitalisations should make it the hardest deadline to wriggle out of yet…for what that’s worth.

Missed chances to stop bomber

The Manchester Arena suicide bomber, Salman Abedi, should have been identified as a terror threat on the night he killed 22 people and injured hundreds more, a public inquiry has found.

The inquiry, chaired by Sir Jon Saunders, examined security arrangements and the actions of police officers on the night of the blast and concluded that there had been “serious shortcomings” and a number of missed opportunities to prevent the attack.

Abedi, who was of Libyan descent and born in Manchester, detonated a shrapnel-laden device in the foyer of the arena at the end of an Ariana Grande concert in May 2017.

Sir John said that Abedi would still have detonated his suicide vest had he been confronted, “but the loss of life and injury is highly likely top have been less.”

The report found that the venue, SMG, along with its security provider Showsec, and the British Transport Police, who patrolled the area adjacent to the nearby Manchester Victoria rail station, were “principally responsible”.

Responding to the report, BTP Chief Constable Lucy D’Orsi said: “We are carefully reviewing the findings outlined in Volume One of the Manchester Arena Inquiry report today… We will never forget that 22 people tragically lost their lives following the truly evil actions of the attacker and many received life changing injuries. They continue to be at the forefront of our thoughts as are their loved ones and all those affected by this dreadful attack.”

Good day at the office

Miners in Botswana have stumbled across a 1,098 carat diamond believed to be the third largest ever discovered.

By comparison, the Koh-i-Noor, the luminescent gem seen by millions each year as part of the Crown Jewels, was thought to have weighed around 200 carats when it was mined.

Minerals minister Lefoko Moagi said the discovery of the yet-to-be named stone could not have come at a better time, with Covid having caused a slump in the market for diamonds, which account for half of all government revenue.

No estimate of the gem’s market value has yet been released, but in 2017 the world’s second largest diamond, the Lesedi La Rona which is only slightly heavier, fetched a cool $53 million.

Mattie Brignal,
News Editor