December election on – what could possibly go wrong?

With the caveat that almost everything about this House of Commons that looks one way turns out to not be the case the following morning, it seems clear that a British general election will take place on a date between the 9th and the 12th of December.

Why? Didn’t Boris Johnson lose a vote on Monday evening on that very question. Yes. The Prime Minister had attempted to get an election via the atrocious Fixed Term Parliaments Act. It requires a two thirds majority, a legacy of David Cameron, George Osborne, Nick Clegg and William Hague when they were so desperate to get their bums on cabinet seats in 2010 that they cooked the constitution in their favour. Sorry, scrap that it should read: when they were desperate in 2010 to give the country the stability of a solid coalition government.

Incidentally, I’m told by a source at Tory headquarters that Osborne is trying like mad to help some of his people as they fight to get selected for those lovely winnable seats. But candidates who are tainted by association with the former Chancellor – who is desperate to get back political influence after his recent activities – find themselves at a disadvantage, I’m told. It’s Boris’s world now in Toryland. The best advice for former Osborne advisers and associates, it seems, is to deny ever having been close to him. Even pretending to never having met Osborne, editor of the Evening Standard, might help. Tory Associations and CCHQ prize loyalty to the Tory cause and a link with the former Chancellor is not a vote-winner.

Anyway, back to the December election.

It seems that the government will on Tuesday propose a “simple” bill for an election on the 12th. The Lib Dems want the 9th. A compromise can be found. SNP demands for votes at 16 don’t seem practical (let alone desirable) in the time available. If the Tories, the Lib Dems and most of the SNP’s MPs all decide tomorrow that an election is in their interests they’ll patch something together and it will happen before Christmas. Number 10 was pointing to an accommodation on Monday evening.

The Tories want to fight an election pledged to deliver Brexit and on sticking it to this rotten parliament. The Lib Dems want to revoke Brexit. The SNP wants a contest before its former leader Alex Salmond goes on trial in January in Scotland.

They can’t all be right and we’re about to find out whether Boris’s big gamble on an election before Brexit does the trick and unblocks the logjam. The Tories had better pray he’s right.

If a December election happens who will win? If anyone claims to know they are lying or deluded.

The Tories are moderately confident that Boris being such a good campaigner, with a clear “get it done” message, will cut through.

But, sceptics note the surge in the last eight weeks of voter registration – up to two million new voters, apparently  – especially among young voters who tend to hate Brexit. The Tories have a tough fight in the South West, it is said, although that’s always a tough and quixotic region to call. The SNP’s MPs look ultra-confident, perhaps too cocky, on Scotland. The Brexit party is limbering up. The Tories are in deep trouble in London and in the South East many middle class voters are furious with a party that has now been in power for nine years.

Or, the Tories hope, Boris will reactivate as many of the 17.4m voters who backed Brexit and storm it against a divided opposition.

Place your bets. What could possibly go wrong?