Disintegrating Tories need a leader who can get the Brexit Party to shut up shop

Wasn’t Easter pleasant? In Britain there was glorious weather everywhere and almost no mention of Brexit anywhere. In Scotland, with family, I climbed a hill – the Cobbler at Arrochar, 2,900ft – and a week later those from the older and younger generations who got to the peak are feeling fine. In sharp contrast, I am feeling the middle-aged twinges of pain. Still, the glowing memory of seeing for twenty miles or more, across the other peaks of the West of Scotland and its lochs, all laid out before us bathed in sunshine, is the perfect pain relief.

And then it was back to London, for me. And back to B… B… B… Brexit. I know, I know. I voted for it. Perhaps you voted for it. It’s not unusual. Millions of people voted for it

But it – Brexit – is completely stuck and as a result Westminster is eerily becalmed, other than for those nervously facing questioning over the leak this week of confidential information from a meeting of the National Security Council, where security and intelligence chiefs meet with senior ministers and officials to discuss top secret stuff. The spooks were, rightly, livid that details leaked of a discussion about whether or not the Chinese firm Huawei should be allowed to play any part in building Britain’s 5G network.

Cabinet ministers suspected of being the phantom leaker have lined up to say, some of them less convincingly than others, that it wasn’t them “wot done it”.

This is the leakiest and most dysfunctional government in living memory. But leaking from the National Security Council is of a different order to the usual wittering about who said what and when on Brexit in cabinet.

Normally, with a leak inquiry afoot, I would say cynically that it will be one of the SPADs (special advisors) who gets the blame and the sack, but this is so serious that even proximity to the leaker will be suspicion enough of involvement to mean a cabinet minister has to fall too. There are several with a motive – that is to to make themselves look tough on the Chinese government and robust on national security and defence.

To solve the case, Agatha Christie-style, the Tory MP and Attorney General Geoffrey Cox should be called in to interrogate the suspects. The big reveal could happen – as in Death on the Nile – with Cox, dressed as Poirot, unmasking the rotter.

Poirot (Cox): “And you, minister, then had your special advisor call the man Swinford from the Daily Telegraph.”

Cabinet Minister A: “This is preposterous!”

Poirot (Cox): “Ah. But your advisor was overheard by the special advisors of other cabinet ministers because they were all in the pub comparing notes on how useless their respective ministers are.”

Cabinet Minister B: “I demand to see my lawyer.”

Poirot: “All in good time, MI5 and officers from the Metropolitan police are outside. Each special advisor when calling Swinford of the Telegraph put on a funny voice and pretended to be the special advisor of  another cabinet minister.”

Cabinet Minister C: “I want my mummy.”

Poirot (Cox): “In summary, ladies and gentlemen, the phantom cabinet leaker was not one cabinet minister. It was done by Cabinet Ministers A, B, C…”

Cabinet Minister D: “Shameful behaviour by my colleagues! They must all resign!”

Poirot (Cox): “And D.”

(Roll credits)

Speaking of Death on the Nile, the Tory leadership appears to be deep in denial about what is happening to it at the hands of Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party. A few weeks ago I wrote that the Tories were being marmalised by the former UKIP leader’s new vehicle. It has since only got worse.

Farage is an experienced operator at the insurgent political campaigning game. A successful launch and public events since have contrasted markedly with the difficulties experienced by the three-named Change UK, Tigger, Whatevers, who have, so far, been swamped.

Daily, Farage is charging round the country doing his routine. Labour so fears losing votes to the Brexit Party that its far left leadership this week had Lord Adonis, the vocal anti-Brexit campaigner selected to stand for the party in the Euros that are happening only because of the Brexit delay, sign a statement endorsing Labour policy on leaving the EU. It read like a hostage statement. Adonis has been re-educated.

But it is the Tories, at this stage, who are being eaten alive by Farage. The polling shows it. Easily more than half the Tories I’ve encountered of late are preparing to vote for the Brexit Party. Tory voters are in uproar about May’s handling of Brexit and much more besides. The risk for the Tories is that this becomes something akin to an extinction event, or at the very least loses them five or six million votes to a permanent bloc of pro-Brexit populist rebels.

In the face of this, and the difficult local elections early next month, there is extraordinary complacency, or perhaps it is fatalism, on the part of senior Tories at Westminster. There is much shrugging of shoulders and exhausted exhaling. The Euro elections are happening. Probably don’t count for much. What can be done anyway? May won’t leave.

This defeatism is apparent partly because the Tories are simply exhausted, after nine years in government (a long time) and after the shenanigans of the last six months, during which they have (depressingly) failed to deliver Brexit. Failing to deliver Brexit is not a good campaigning slogan for the Tories. Yet even with a proper leader, and a united front, the Conservatives would in normal times be struggling to win another spell in power after being the largest party in 2010, 2015 and 2017.

If they are to get into any kind of shape to fight their way through their despair they are going to need a new leader, soon. With that in mind, and despite May’s reluctance to contemplate leaving, the leadership race has, obviously, already started. There will be plenty of time to assess the relative merits and otherwise of the assorted candidates who will set out – Grand National at Aintree-style – when it formally launches.

At this stage I venture only one observation about the shape of the wild contest to come. Recent events massively favour Boris Johnson.

In essence, the candidates will now – with the rise of Farage’s Brexit party – have to answer a key question: Can you be Brexity enough to get Farage to shut up shop?

The winner, if they are to stand a chance of winning a subsequent general election, is going to have to be able to say convincingly that their election and elevation to the premiership halts the rise of the Brexit party. Ideally, for the Tories, Farage will declare “job done” if the Tories pick a Brexiteer.

Boris is the candidate who can make the claim most forcefully that he can do it. Former Remainers will struggle to say it and be believed. This changes the dynamics of the leadership contest.

The members of the Tory 1922 Committee, the backbench shop-stewards of the parliamentary party, know this and they know that Boris is the favourite with the Tory members, who will decide once MPs have whittled the runners and riders down to a final two.

Concern about Johnson’s suitability is partly what made the 1922 bosses hold on to May this week. They are waiting, hoping, something turns up to destabilise or do in Boris so that someone else gets a chance. Or he could blow up live on TV in a debate. The public – forced to watch as its Prime Minister is selected by the Tories – will demand televised hustings. They’ll likely be messy and some of the leading characters may well self-destruct.

What if Boris doesn’t blow up and he wins? Johnson in power faces a titanic task. He’ll have to deliver a Brexit clean enough to shut down Farage. He’ll also need to woo Tory Remainers with a one nation message. Middle-ground voters who once liked the Boris show have gone off it after series 15, in which he was Foreign Secretary. The Union will need defending, as he does not work as a proposition for Ruth Davidson’s Scottish Tories or, more importantly, for Scottish voters. And then he’ll need to bounce out of all that with brio into a general election promoting a post-Brexit policy platform on public services, enterprise, housing for the young, and the environment, to beat Corbynite Labour mining discontent with austerity.

Johnson likes to be compared to Winston Churchill, the showman leader whose biography he wrote. BJ is nothing like as martial, fiery or experienced as WSC. Nonetheless, if it is Boris, he’ll need to be every bit as dextrous and lucky as his hero.

Have a good weekend,

Iain Martin,
Editor and Publisher,
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