Why Donald Trump can pivot on gun control

It was the Democratic leader, Senator Mike Mansfield, who is often credited with coining the phrase “Nixon goes to China” in the early 1970s, although he said he had heard it uttered elsewhere by persons unnamed in Washington. What he meant was that, in the context of the Vietnam War and the complexity of the Cold War, only a Republican president could get away with travelling to see Mao. Only someone with robust national security credentials, a Cold War warrior, would have had the audacity to try for an accommodation with the Chinese regime.

Since then, the term has been used as a byword for audacious switches or unlikely changes of policy. President Donald Trump may just have done it on gun control and the need for tighter controls in the wake of the Parkland shooting in which 17 students died.

Trump has astonished Republicans with his tough comments on the need for stronger controls.

“I want you to come up with a strong bill – and really strong on background checks,” Mr Trump told lawmakers at a televised meeting held at the White House on Wednesday. He criticised the National Rifle Association – which endorsed him for President in 2016. He said the NRA had “great power over you people” – you people meaning lawmakers. Trump said it has “less power over me.”

“Take the guns first, go through due process second,” Trump said, seemingly advocating removing guns from the mentally ill without a court order. “We can’t wait and play games and nothing gets done.”

This stunned the NRA, which thought it had helped install its own man in the White House. Senior Republicans were appalled too: “We’re not ditching any constitutional protections simply because the last person the president talked to today doesn’t like them,” said Senator Ben Sasse.

Something – watching the survivors on TV? – seems to have persuaded Trump that the mood on this issue is shifting among American voters. As a result, Trump is pivoting back to his 1990s view on guns, that regulations and restrictions need to be much tighter. He still defends the Second Amendment (guns are not going to disappear from American society) but tighter controls could make a difference.

Of course, Trump may walk it all back in a series of early morning tweets. Or walk it all back, and then switch again and attack the NRA and the gun lobby tomorrow. He could have five positions on it by the time he has his first “Big Mac” of the day. His tweet after the meeting at the White House was certainly incoherent, contradictory and generally all over the place:

“Many ideas, some good & some not so good, emerged from our bipartisan meeting on school safety yesterday at the White House. Background Checks a big part of conversation. Gun free zones are proven targets of killers. After many years, a Bill should emerge. Respect 2nd Amendment!”

We’ll see where this ends up, but this is another area in which Trump’s inherent unpredictability, his unconventional approach, his baffling brainstorms, could upend the orthodoxy. There are mid-term elections coming in November. The Parkland survivors are using social media to take on the NRA, and they are doing it effectively. There exists the possibility – the possibility – of a major and overdue change in American policy.