American presidential elections go through a series of stages, in the course of which a massive metamorphosis takes place, so that the line-up on polling day usually looks very different from the consensus view at the beginning of the process. The current situation, still far from any reliable prediction of the final confrontation and outcome, might be called the end of the beginning.
On the Republican side, the first presidential debate has already taken place, without participation by Donald Trump – Hamlet without the Prince – and the second is scheduled for 27 September. The function of these debates, in conjunction with opinion polls, is to convert the initial melee of presidential aspirants into a coherent pecking order. That process has confirmed the irrelevance of the likes of Mike Pence and Chris Christie (despite a slight growth in his support, from Never Trump Republicans), that Ron DeSantis has a mountain to climb and is sliding down it, the slightly enhanced credibility of Nikki Haley and the startling pyrotechnics of Vivek Ramaswamy.
