Trump was winning the debate and then blew himself up towards the end
Having failed to anticipate the rise of Donald Trump and the difficulties experienced by Hillary Clinton in winning the nomination of her party, I am not sure how much use the opinions of any of us commentators really are. But with that caveat in mind, here’s my short take for what it is worth on last night’s first debate between the candidates.
1) Trump very clearly won the first section on the economy. His message on manufacturing and reshoring jobs might be protectionist, populist nonsense, but it was delivered efficiently and clearly. On the risks of more Clintonite regulation he won again. Her manner was wooden and robotic and even when he blundered – “that’s business” he said when the subject of job losses came up in another context – she could not pivot quickly with a Reagan-style riposte that would have clipped for the next day’s news and the history books.
2) On tax, her attack line that he wants to advantage the rich (and the Trump family) did not resonate in the way it might have done. For many alienated American voters Trump’s reality TV version success (in truth not very successful at all) seems to be worth aspiring to. It is not a negative for him. His attack on politicians, promising a lot and delivering nothing, was straight out of the anti-Establishment playbook. And his denunciation of the dreadful state of US infrastructure was effective. But Clinton got her first proper hit when questioning why he will not release his tax returns. Even so, again she could not think on her feet. When she said he paid no federal taxes, he interjected “that makes me smart.” There was a potential killer moment in the election when a better candidate would have come up with a zinger of a retort. Hillary didn’t.
3) Trump won most of the first hour, which is probably what matters. Many viewers will not have lasted the distance as commentators did.
4) The race relations section was surprisingly bland, as though the candidates wanted to avoid inflaming the issue.
5) Then Trump started to lose it badly. What set him off was the question about the so-called “birther” claims and Obama. His suggestion that he had done “a great job”, a great favour to the US and the current President, by banging on for years about a racist lie, got him a straightforward hammering from Clinton. This started him rambling and wittering, combining that weird anger and boastful incoherence. He ended up demanding praise for allowing blacks and Muslims into his club in Palm Beach! Really. Some of his supporters do want to return to the 1950s, but come on.
6) When it came to the question of “Securing America” he lost the plot completely. This was about as un-Presdidential as it is possible to be. He denied supporting the invasion of Iraq, despite all the evidence. In his defence he repeatedly invoked Sean Fox News Hannity, the most stupid man in American current affairs broadcasting. Clinton left him to it and defended Nato in a statesmanlike fashion. Trump was blowing himself up, but will his fans care about this stuff? A recent poll suggests that 22% of his supporters think he will start a nuclear war. And they are still voting for him.
7) Clinton made him look like a complete chump on the question of sexism at the end. This was easy as all she had to do was use his own words against him, and cite a young immigrant woman who had been called names by Trump. She is now a US citizen and will vote, said Clinton. Trump had begun the evening with a clear, strong, populist message on the economy, and a controlled style. By the end he was ranting on trying to defend having called women “pigs” and “slobs”.
You can watch the debate in full here.