Everyone everywhere always wants everything to get better. No one, including movie stars, billionaires and Premier League footballers, is satisfied with things as they are.
At the same time, we crave realism and reason. We’re had enough of fantasies.
So let me say out loud what every politician in the country thinks, but dare not say, about immigration.
It cannot be stopped. It can be slowed; it can certainly be better managed. But it cannot be stopped. Hundreds of thousands of migrants who have not yet left their home countries will arrive in the UK over the next twelve months, and in the twelve months after that, and the twelve months after that again. The process is inexorable.
The world is on the move, mostly from poor, hot countries to cooler, richer countries. Britain is a plum target for many, but the same phenomenon is at work in France, Germany, Sweden, Spain, Italy – you name it – as well as the US, Canada and Australia.
Climate change is part of the reason why (look at what is happening in Somalia, Ethiopia, Pakistan and the Sahel), but only part. Population increase is another factor. In 1960, the year Nigera gained its independence, Africa’s largest country had a population of 45 million. Today it is about to hit 220 million. The population of Africa is surging, as are the numbers in most of Asia, including India. Poverty is the third driver: who would want to live in a country where the majority of the people struggle to feed their families and where basic utilities, such as water and electricity, cannot be guaranteed?
Those born and raised in the UK, know that it is no Shangri-la. Those who don’t, don’t. They may not believe that they will grow rich in England and live an easy life, but they also know that, whatever happens, they will be better off by far living in London, Birmingham or Bradford than Mogadishu, Lahore or Kinshasa.
Nigel Farage would have us believe that taking control of our borders is a simple matter, requiring only grit, determination and, where necessary, a show of force.
He might have a point if he was prepared to adopt Fascist methods. But Farage is no Fascist, and nor are most of his followers. He and they merely want their country back.
The problem is, they can’t have it. Two thousand years ago, England was inhabited by the Britons and their offshoots, plus a few Roman overseers. Following the Roman withdrawal, the Saxons, Jutes and Angles poured in, driving the Britons back. Then came the Normans and their camp-followers. None of these were invited. They just showed up.
In our own time, the Empire has come home to roost: Indians, West Indians, Africans Chinese, Asians of every stripe. The East Europeans who swarmed in during the latter phase of our membership of the EU were only the latest in a long line of settlers.
And so it will go on. It cannot, I repeat, be stopped, it can only be slowed and better regulated. Most of the inflow is legal, or quasi-legal. Immigrants turn up every day at ports and airports across the country – and once they show their perfectly valid visas, they are here for good, with the same rights as everybody else. As for illegals, the countries that provide them don’t want them back. More than that, they won’t take them back. And the idea that they can all be sent to Rwanda is beyond ludicrous.
Lots, perhaps most, of the “native” English are unhappy about this reality, which is perfectly understandable. They would like to wish it away. They expect whichever government is in power to pull up the drawbridge. They forget that there is no drawbridge, only a myriad of access points, legal and illegal, that are viewed, correctly, as gateways to a better life.
If I have any advice to offer, it is this: get on top of the online paperwork; decide who can stay and who should go, and then, if possible, act on the decision; update (and publicise) the rights available to new arrivals; properly track the progress of those who make it through; work with the EU to bolster at least the possibility of Fortress Europe; and open realistic talks with the many countries around the world that provide the migrants, while noting that this will inevitably mean paying them off.
Do all of that and the potential increase over ten years, say, might drop by 25 per cent. But that is all. There is no more to be done. The only thing that would cause the bulk of intending migrants to stay where they would be if “home” was richer, better structured, less hot, less corrupt and less crowded than it is today – and there is no sign of that.
Is mine a counsel of despair? You might very well think that. But I don’t see how things can get noticeably better or easier in the years ahead. We can hope that at some point the migration flow will change direction – perhaps into Russia, which is fast running out of people, or Alaska, which may soon become more widely habitable. But for now, hundreds of thousands of new homes will be needed every year in England to house the new arrivals. Millions of new jobs will have to be created. More of everything will be needed.
And – an important rider this – we will have to give up the pretence that immigrants, and in particular the descendants of immigrants, are somehow imbued with a work ethic and sense of civic responsibility that the rest of us, if we are to listen to the liberal-left, so conspicuously lack. Some 8.5 million immigrants have arrived in the UK since 1960. That figure will soon be ten million. And yet the British economy remains in traction and productivity stubbornly refuses to rise. How can this be? Is it possible that second and third-generation immigrants, who have only ever known the UK and its habits, are no different, and no harder working, than the rest of us?
Bear that in mind next time you hear business leaders tell you that without regular influxes of motivated migrant workers, Britain will come to a halt.
So … tough times ahead, with millions of new arrivals that by 2050, if not sooner, will take the British population to around 75 million, making England (where most of the newcomers will settle) the most densely inhabited country in Europe.
Am I wrong? Is Nigel Farage right? Can he wave a wand, or pass a Bill, that would simultaneously hold our population to something like its present level and allow us to maintain good (and economically vital) relations with the developing world? Is it even fair or reasonable to argue that only doctors, nurses, teachers, scientists and technicians – expensively trained by countries that cannot afford their loss – should in future be admitted? I would dearly love to know the answer. I would love someone to show me that there is in fact a third way that benefits everyone. But I’ll be damned if I can work out what it is. Over to you, Nige.
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