Don’t underestimate Russia

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today the attempted coup d’etat by Wagner mercenaries against President Putin showed the true scale of the Kremlin’s strategic mistake in annexing Crimea and waging war on Ukraine.

Speaking in Vilnius ahead of the NATO summit next month, Stoltenberg added that the abortive mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private army also demonstrated the weakness of Russia’s leadership. 

When asked at the press conference in Lithuania what impact NATO expects the Wagner mutiny to have on the war in Ukraine, he said: “What we’re seeing in Russia over the last few days demonstrates the fragility of the [Russian] regime, and, of course, it is a demonstration of weakness.”

The secretary-general, whose tenure is likely to be extended beyond September as members have yet to agree on a new head, went on to say that the mutiny was an “internal Russian matter” and not an issue for NATO to be involved with.

However, he did make the point that the mutiny showed how “difficult and dangerous it is for President [Vladimir] Putin to be reliant on mercenaries. That has actually turned against him.”

Stoltenberg was speaking alongside German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, and Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nauseda, with whom he was meeting to discuss the final preparations for next month’s summit in Vilnius next month at which Finland will attend as its newest member. 

But Sweden’s accession to the alliance – seen as vital for Baltic security – is still up in the air. After talks with Turkey’s president, Recep Erdogan, on Sunday, Stoltenberg said he is planning an urgent high-level meeting in Brussels ahead of the summit on July 11 to resolve Turkish objections to Sweden’s membership. All NATO partners have to agree on the accession of new members. 

Erdogan has told Stoltenberg that he will drop objections if Sweden ends its support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which Ankara has designated a terrorist organisation. 

In another move designed to bolster Baltic security, Germany’s defence minister, Pistorius, pledged during his visit to Vilnius that Germany will send several thousand troops – a “robust brigade” – to be stationed permanently in Lithuania as part of the international response to the threat that Russia poses for the region.

In Russia, Putin broke his silence for the first time since vowing to crush the end of Saturday’s abortive coup with a speech released by the Kremlin via video to an “Engineers of the Future” forum without once mentioning Wagner’s march on Moscow. There were also video sightings of Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister who has been the target of Prigozhin’s attacks on the military shortcomings. Shoigu was said to have been visiting troops at a military centre in Ukraine but it is not known when the video was filmed.

Away from the Kremlin intrigue, there are fresh reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnipro River and are close to retaking territory on the left bank of Kherson province. It’s seen as a move that opens the way to an advance towards Crimea.

The question now is just how much this latest internal mutiny has damaged Putin or, indeed, weakened his ambition towards Ukraine. It has certainly hurt his credibility. But as Stoltenberg cautioned, never underestimate Russia’s resolve. Putin has now ruled Russia for 23 years and is unlikely to be put off by a paramilitary group led by a former chef. Which is why the NATO chief also said the alliance is ready to defend Ukraine and every inch of Allied territory.

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