Don’t underestimate the appeal of Boris

The received wisdom is that Boris Johnson is a Southern, Eton posh boy who will have limited appeal in the North of England. It is widely believed, mostly among remainers who already despise Johnson, that his cross-party appeal and popularity had been terminally diminished by his leading role in the Vote Leave campaign.

This belief is likely exaggerated by people who want it to be true. A recent survey in Workington, a constituency in the North West of England, that shows the voters in that constituency set to vote in a Tory MP certainly suggests so.

The Cumbrian town has come under the spotlight because it typifies the type of seat the Tories need to win if they are to make up for what look like inevitable losses in Scotland, London and Remain supporting parts of the South. A potential win in Workington suggests that Boris could well succeed where Theresa May failed and make serious inroads into Labour heartlands. He will do this with a mix of classic old Labour policies – spending promises on the NHS, schools and the police – along with his commitment to ‘get Brexit done’, underpinned by his “oven ready” Withdrawal Agreement.

Last time, in 2017, a lot of people underestimated Jeremy Corbyn; this time they may well underestimate Boris Johnson. He is definitely a more polarising figure than he’s ever been, but he still has star power and an appeal that goes way beyond Tory members and traditional Tory voters. It may stick in the craw of his detractors, but people like him. People you wouldn’t expect like him. People like him who live in constituencies where you wouldn’t expect them to like an Eton educated Tory.

Today, in The Times, Reaction editor Iain Martin wrote of the palpable sense of relief among the Tories now that Boris is on the campaign trail. This is both because it allows them to move on from the blunder filled beginning of the campaign and because of the reassuring contrast of Boris’ style to that of Theresa May. He inspires Tory activists which is essential going into the campaign and he still has a star power and recognition level way beyond most politicians.

The public suffered through Theresa May’s interminable drabness. Her uninspired speeches, her dithering and the general atmosphere of repressive boredom that she created. They continue to suffer the country’s Brexit purgatory and overwhelming sense of pessimism expressed by passionate opponents of Brexit. It’s not so hard to understand the appeal of flamboyant Boris’s optimism, patriotism and general upbeat demeanour.
Oh, yes, he’s full of bluster, and casual dishonesty, but he gets away with it and many people still warm to him. He makes people laugh and cheers them up, as infuriating as that might be for those that hate him.  There is something about him and Brexit hasn’t destroyed it completely.

It could work. Brexit dominates in many voters’ minds, including in key target seats like Workington. There’s Boris with a deal saying lets “get Brexit done”, opposed to Labour saying let’s renegotiate then have another referendum, or the Brexit Party who can’t actually get anything done. Labour should be worried that the Tories have a crystal-clear message and a better means of communicating it, they could well cut right through Labour Leave seats in a way Theresa May only dreamed about.

The Tories just need to make sure they avoid more of the public relations  nightmares that preceded the kick-off of the official campaign. They also need to avoid any of the terrible policy errors and failures of communication that hampered them in 2017.

But Boris has the advantage of having a far better team behind him. And he not Theresa May. There should be no equivalent of the “dementia tax” debacle and none of the awkwardness of the Maybot on the campaign trail.

The Conservatives turned to Boris because they calculated they needed his big personality and star power to beat Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn. Now everything depends on him.