Dublin badly needs a free trade agreement with Britain after Brexit
While many voters in Britain greeted Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal last year with relief, it inspired anger among unionists in Northern Ireland.
The Withdrawal Agreement requires the province to apply EU customs rules after Brexit and keeps it aligned with the single market’s regulations on goods and agriculture. Unionists say these arrangements create an effective border in the Irish Sea and consign their part of the UK to membership of an “economic united Ireland”.
Their worries intensified during the election campaign when Johnson’s claims that “unfettered trade” between Northern Ireland and Great Britain could continue without checks, paperwork or the payment of tariffs were challenged robustly. But while there is still deep foreboding about the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the Conservatives’ decisive victory means most Unionists are resigned to the fact that it will pass swiftly through the House of Commons.
Under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, firms in Northern Ireland have to pay tariffs on goods they buy from the British mainland that are ‘at risk’ from being moved on into the Republic of Ireland or elsewhere in the single market. Initially, this classification includes any materials that are to be processed – effectively this covers anything intended for manufacturing.
The prime minister and other Conservative ministers claim that most goods will eventually be excluded from the “at risk” category, leaving only particularly sensitive products such as exotic animals or components of firearms. A “joint committee”, established to oversee the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement, is empowered with exempting goods from tariffs and checks.
The government no longer needs the support of Northern Irish MPs to win important votes in the House of Commons, so the DUP cannot rely upon political influence to hold Boris Johnson to his promises. The party will have to repair its damaged relationships with the Conservatives and hope that the prime minister pays attention to the Union’s wellbeing, as he embarks upon a new round of negotiations with Brussels.
Northern Ireland will be the part of the UK most directly affected by the Withdrawal Agreement, so there’s a strong case for the involvement of Northern Irish representatives in the joint committee charged with its implementation.
There was a rare example of unanimity among the province’s MPs on Monday when they tabled a joint amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill asking the government to enshrine its commitment to “unfettered access” in the legislation. If Boris Johnson believes genuinely that his deal creates no barriers for Northern Ireland businesses trading in Great Britain, and he was quite explicit about that during the election campaign, then there seems little reason why he cannot support this change.
The prime minister’s large majority also potentially gives him more flexibility in negotiations with Brussels. Unlike Theresa May, he should have fewer problems managing his party and, if he favours reasonably close alignment with EU rules, the more purist Tory Brexiteers will be aware that opposing a trade deal could exhaust the public’s patience. At the same time, the EU is now talking to a leader with a healthy mandate. It may show a greater willingness to listen to British concerns.
If it doesn’t care about the viewpoints of London, then surely it will be influenced by interests in Dublin, where the Irish government has gone to extraordinary lengths to prove its loyalty to Brussels over the past three and a half years. The Northern Ireland component of the Brexit deal has been analysed at length, but its likely effects on the Republic haven’t been discussed so fully.
During the early stages of negotiations, it was often assumed that Leo Varadkar and his government were using the border question to ensure the whole UK remained tied to the single market and customs’ union. Many commentators believed the Irish prime minister was more concerned with protecting trade between the Republic and Great Britain than avoiding potential checks on the comparatively small volume of goods moving between his country and Northern Ireland.
Viewed from that perspective, the Withdrawal Agreement does very little to address the problems that Brexit creates for the southern Irish economy. More than any other EU government, Dublin badly needs a wide-ranging trade deal with the UK, because its economic success depends upon access to the British market.
Indeed, you could argue that unionists in Ulster and ministers in the Irish republic now have a shared interest in reaching the same Brexit outcome. A favourable free trade deal is the best chance of avoiding a border in the Irish Sea that undermines Northern Ireland’s place in the UK. It’s also the best hope for the Republic of protecting its economy after Britain leaves the EU.