Egomaniac Farage has fallen for his own propaganda

The morning of June 24th 2016 appeared to be the climax of Nigel Farage’s career, and he revelled in it. Although he had not led the official campaign he had played a key role in the fight for a leave vote. On 4th July 2016 he announced he was quitting as Ukip leader, saying: “I wanted my country back … now I want my life back”. Farage took a step back from British politics to crow from the side-lines during Brexit negotiations and begin a new career as a “shock jock” political commentator and full time Trump sycophant.

When the Tories hit trouble he reappeared earlier this year using the Brexit Party as his vehicle. His unexpected political comeback has been typically impactful. Once again, he has successfully applied pressure to the Conservative party. He taken some of their votes and forced them to change policy. He even influenced their leadership election as Boris Johnson was voted in as leader partly to fight back against the Brexit party surge.

Boris has committed his Party to delivering Brexit at all costs. He renegotiated the Withdrawal Agreement and has committed to a much harder Brexit than Theresa May had planned for. If the Conservative party wins the election and gains a decent majority, the UK will leave the EU as soon as the Withdrawal Agreement passes parliament and everything Farage has fought for in his entire political career will have been achieved. So, is he happy? Of course not.

This morning Farage insisted that the Brexit party will contest every seat unless Johnson drops his “sell-out” deal in the next fortnight in favour of a “genuine free trade agreement”. In other words, he will plough ahead unless Boris concedes to all of his demands by dropping an agreement with the EU he just successfully renegotiated, committing to a “no deal” Brexit that a consensus of economics and trade experts agree will be economically disastrous, and then attempt to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement from a position of economic and political weakness. It’s bad policy and a terrible offer.

Farage’s criticism of the Conservative party’s position smacks of a man, and a party, staring political extinction in the face and desperately clinging to anything to differentiate themselves and remain relevant. Farage could give his backing to Boris, knowing that doing so makes Brexit more likely, but he’s opting for ideological purity because he clearly now cares more about his career than Brexit. Insisting that only leaving the EU with no deal is a genuine Brexit is his last desperate ploy.

Earlier this year Farage was touring the country giving rabble rousing speeches to adoring supporters. I attended “An Evening with Nigel Farage” in Hull and witnessed a man beginning to believe his own hype and considering a future as something more than an insurgent that applies pressure on the Tories right flank. He said the Brexit Party was “the real deal” and here to stay.

He set out a series of policies to make the Brexit party the standard bearer of the populist right and seemed to revel in the presumed inevitability of the Tories failing on Brexit. He contemplated an election in which the Brexit party became a kingmaker able to extract a high price from the Conservatives for their support. Perhaps he imagined giving one of his trademark tub thumping speeches in the Commons.

His supporters lapped it up. A man from Scunthorpe attracted to Farage’s protectionist policy on the British steel industry announced his intention to stand as a Brexit party candidate and said: “It would be the honour of my life to work for that man.” That’s the thing about Farage, his most devoted followers love him and believe in him. Perhaps he has spent too much time around those that adore him and bought into his own myth.

In truth, it’s unlikely the Brexit Party are going to storm this election or even gain a foothold in the House of Commons. The resources of the Brexit party are overstretched and the First Past the Post system means they would do well to repeat Ukip’s success in securing a single MP. The Brexit party was always a pop-up pressure group and in that sense its work is done.

Boris Johnson’s Conservative party is now the real Brexit party. They are unequivocally committed to delivering Brexit and have adopted policies designed to attract 2016 Leave voters. The only reason to vote for the Brexit party is to register opposition to the Withdrawal Agreement and transition period but doing so puts Brexit in jeopardy.

This election is going to be highly unpredictable. While it is true that in some Labour Leave-leaning seats the Brexit Party will compete with Labour and take the votes of people who support Brexit but would never vote Tory, it is also the case that Boris is running on the same strategy as Theresa May in 2017, the success of which relies heavily on minimising the Brexit party’s impact.

Ultimately, a vote for the Brexit party could be a vote for remain if the Leave vote splits in marginal seats and benefits pro-remain candidates from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. If Labour can form a government, perhaps propped up informally by the Liberal Democrats, there will be a second referendum. Farage will get more time in the spotlight, but the cause of Brexit could end up being lost. Those Brexiteers still attracted to Farage will have to decide if that’s a price worth paying for the ideologically pure fantasy of a no deal Brexit.