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Either Labour reconciles itself to Brexit or it disappears down the plughole of history
When I first wrote a while ago that the Conservative party should consider seeking knighthoods for Jeremy Corbyn and his leading supporters it was only a tongue in cheek suggestion. But in the light of what happened on Thursday in the UK’s round of local elections it is clear that the Tory leadership should be getting on the telephone to Buckingham Palace and demanding it urgently. Never has the Tory party in its long history had greater assistance than that provided by these gentlemen.
Arise, Sir Jeremy. Arise, Sir John McDonnell, the far-left shadow Chancellor. Arise Sir Seumas Milne, Corbyn’s media mastermind. And don’t forget Guardian columnist Owen Jones, one of the brightest Corbynistas who at least has the sense to look ashamed now when confronted with his enthusiastic backing for the “Jez we can” movement.
The Corbynista line in 2015 and last year when he won re-election as Labour leader was that Corbyn would ignite voter interest. Jeremy would take back Scotland. His army of members would sweep England. Just wait and see.
This was obviously rubbish, yet they proceeded. They were warned by Labour people, and by centre-left commentators, and by those of us on the centre-right who want there to be a functioning opposition. They proceeded down the road to disaster, pursuing an undergraduate far-left fantasy. Corbyn was never going to attract the support of more than a small minority of voters. He backed the IRA against Britain. He backed the Soviet Union against Britain. Even if you don’t know that, all you have to do is look at him to see you wouldn’t send him out for a loaf let alone make him Prime Minister. For goodness sake, just look at him.
On Thursday the selfish, self-indulgent fantasy came crashing down, or it should have done. Labour in England suffered the electoral equivalent of a heart attack, with the Tories gaining 563 councillors and Labour losing 382.
In Scotland the party lost Glasgow to the SNP. South of the border, the Conservatives won four out of the six “metro mayors” posts that were up for grabs.
The Corbynite response to this carnage was mostly rooted in deranged denial. Only a few former believers to their credit admitted that it had all been a ghastly mistake.
The results confirm the obvious. Corbyn is toxic. What matters in local elections (which are hard to measure in national vote share because of low turnout etc) is momentum, as in the act of moving forwards, not as in the crackpot Corbynite organisation that has almost destroyed Labour. That momentum is with Theresa May, who looks to be on course for a landslide in a few weeks’ time.
In Scotland, too, there is a fascinating amount of movement, with the old party system collapsing and the Scottish Conservatives staging a stunning recovery under Ruth Davidson. The Scottish Tories gained 164 seats and are now the second party in local government.
Typically, an arrogant SNP leadership that struggles to process reverses put a great amount of effort into claiming erroneously that it had all gone marvellously well. The central point is that the last local elections were held in 2012. Between then and now there was the Scottish referendum and the party’s surge in membership and great victory in the 2015 general election in Scotland. This was supposed to be the moment when the local government electoral map caught up with those dramatic changes. Although the party did well, it was supposed to provide the SNP with major gains. That did not happen.
And all this with the general election on June 8th to come, in which quite a few of the SNP’s MPs are now vulnerable to a Tory assault.
In Scotland, that election is all about Nicola Sturgeon’s ill-advised push for a second independence referendum, against the wishes of many voters. Add to that the way in which Sturgeon has steadily become an ever more divisive figure. Anti-Nationalist voters are emboldened. They are fired up. They’ve had enough. I was in Scotland this week for a few days and the backlash is something to behold.
The story in England is quite different. It is about Brexit and the related question of national leadership.
There I have very bad news for Labour friends. Hard as this might seem to imagine, the situation is even worse for the Labour party than it looks. How can that be when Corbyn is leader and John McDonnell is Shadow Chancellor? How can it get any worse?
It is even worse than it looks because of Brexit and a deep shift in the country which Labour is incapable of responding to because too many of those who might rescue the party are at odds with the country.
Think about the position of the modernisers, the bedraggled remains of the Blairite brigade and a smattering of younger moderates. Tony Blair says he might get involved by standing again at some point (doesn’t Theresa May have enough advantages already?) and he admits he wants back into the EU. Others make various versions of the same argument.
This is at odds with the common sense and pragmatic view of the overwhelming majority of voters. They either voted to Leave or now accept that the UK is leaving the EU and want to get on with it. We are where we are. Get used to it.
Theresa May’s pitch is perfect in this context. She voted to Remain and is not an ideologue. The result must be willingly accepted she says, and she thinks (genuinely) that it is an opportunity to be grasped. Forget talk of “hard” or “soft” Brexit, her position is understood and trusted by a broad coalition of voters. She wants to get the “best Brexit” and will negotiate the best deal she can. When it gets tough – as it will – she has demonstrated, in her spat with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission President, a knack for speaking out over the heads of elite opinion direct to millions of voters. There’s a directness there.
In contrast, there is Blair, along with the Lib Dems and the other frantic ultra-remainers. They mock May but they themselves forever seem to be speaking in code. There’s a constant and unsettling sneakiness. Of course they accept the referendum result, they say, but, but, but…
The struggling Lib Dem leader and anti-Brexit titan Tim Farron last week even had the brass neck to describe himself as a “bit of a Eurosceptic.” Come off it! How stupid does he think the voters are?
Others admit openly that they are looking for the big slip-up, or trying to help arrange it, that leads back to EU membership. Others deny this aim but look like they’re fibbing.
This is no basis for a reasonable national policy and never likely to attract mass support. It is no basis either for the revival of Labour or the creation of a new force. It’s just far too tricksy. It smacks of bad faith.
Labour’s Yvette Cooper, a potential post-Corbyn leader, seems to take a more sensible view that Brexit is the new reality and Labour must begin with acceptance and rebuild accordingly if it is ever to win power again. But even if Cooper or another such realist becomes leader this year or next, they will have to contend with the Blairite remnants and other ultra-remainers pushing away, making eyes at Brussels, alongside resentful Corbynites ranged against the person who dared succeed the hopeless Corbyn.
What a situation. Well done McDonnell, Milne, Jones, Diane Abbott and Emily Thornberry. Well done everyone involved. Actually, skip the knighthood. Go straight for canonisation. St Jeremy, the patron saint of the Tory party.
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Iain Martin and the team make sense of the news, providing commentary and analysis on the stories that matter in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture.