Endangered home counties Tories: which MPs are at risk if the blue wall falls?

The Liberal Democrats pulled off a shock victory at the Chesham and Amersham by-election, securing a stonking swing of 25 per cent from the Conservatives in a seat that has been blue since it was created in 1974.

The result prompted Lib Dem leader Ed Davey to declare that the Tory “blue wall” in the South was “beginning to crumble” – a point he drove home by demolishing a wall of blue cardboard bricks with a small orange hammer, to cheers from Lib Dem activists.

He might have a point. The Lib Dems came second to the Tories in more than 80 (overwhelmingly southern) seats at the 2019 general election. So which of these southern Tories should be running scared?

Some of the most marginal Conservative wins in the 2019 election were in London, where the Lib Dems are snapping at the Tories’ heels.

In Wimbledon, Tory Stephen Hammond won his seat with a measly 149 majority – and it would require nothing more than a 0.14 per cent swing to the Lib Dems for his seat to turn yellow. Similarly, Carshalton and Wallington Tory Elliot Colburn won by 629 votes and would be ousted by a 0.64 per cent swing.

Other London Tory seats that are vulnerable to Lib Dem swings of under 25 per cent are: the Cities of London and Westminster on a 4.63 per cent margin, Finchley and Golders Green on 5.95 per cent, Sutton and Cheam on 8.27 per cent, Chelsea and Fulham on 12 per cent, Kensington on 16.69 per cent, Beckhenham on 18.88 per cent, Bromley and Chislehurst on 19.02 per cent, Croydon South on 19.78 per cent, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner on 20.23 per cent and Orpington on 23.94 per cent. Phew!

This morning’s news will also have been uncomfortable reading for the so-called “blue wall” Tory MPs outside of London. Cheltenham MP Alex Chalk won his seat in 2019 with a majority of just 981 votes and is vulnerable to a 0.83 per cent Lib Dem swing, closely followed by Winchester MP Steve Brine, who won by 985 votes and is vulnerable to a 0.84 per cent swing.

Conservative heavyweights who should also be scared of a Lib Dem resurgence are Esher and Walton’s Dominic Raab on a 2.17 per cent swing margin and South West Surrey’s Jeremy Hunt on a 7.31 per cent margin. 

Other vulnerable southern Tories are Lewes’ Maria Caulfield on a 2.24 per cent swing margin, Guildford’s Angela Richardson on 2.84 per cent, Eastbourne’s Caroline Ansell on 3.93 per cent and St Ives’ Derek Thomas on 4.16 per cent. 

All in all, there are 94 London, South East and South West Conservative seats that could turn yellow with a Lib Dem swing of 25 per cent or less.  

As for Chesham and Amersham’s neighbouring seat of Wycombe: Tory MP Steve Baker has a majority of 4,214. There’s a fairly strong Labour presence in this constituency and Lib Dems are in a firm third place with 11 per cent of the vote – but, if these two opposition parties cooperate, then Baker could be in trouble.

The unsuccessful Tory candidate for Chesham and Amersham may have scorned the Lib Dems for throwing not just the sink, but also the “microwave, the table, the oven, the dishwasher, the dog, the cat and anything else that was lying around” at the by-election. 

But by the look of these numbers, other Tory candidates might want to take a leaf out of the Lib Dem playbook before the 2024 election.