Erdogan under pressure as earthquake death toll soars

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Turkey’s President Erdogan is under mounting pressure to get a grip on the country’s emergency earthquake response as tens of thousands of people remain trapped under fallen buildings across the country and neighbouring Syria, writes Mattie Brignal.

It’s now three days since the tremor hit, and the extent of the horrific human cost is becoming clearer.

The combined death toll in Turkey and Syria has risen to over 19,000. The true figure is likely far higher. At least 6,000 buildings have been destroyed in Turkey alone. More than 380,000 people in southern Turkey have been made homeless.

Rescue crews are racing to dig survivors out of the rubble, trapped without water and exposed to the bitter cold under fallen concrete. With each day that passes, hope of finding anyone still alive fades.

In Turkey, impassable roads and the sheer size of the affected area are making the rescue operation fiendishly difficult. The same is true in Syria, with the added complication that much of the territory worst affected is controlled by rebels, not Bashar al-Assad’s government.

The challenging conditions haven’t shielded Erdogan’s government from fierce criticism that the official response has been inadequate and slow. Despite collecting earthquake taxes for 20 years, “this government was just not prepared,” says Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

The broader accusation is that years of endemic corruption and incompetence meant building regulations weren’t followed, particularly during the economic boom of Erdogan’s first decade in power. While Erdogan yesterday admitted to “shortcomings” in the government’s response, he also dismissed criticism as politically motivated.

The debate hints at the significant political implications of the earthquake, beyond the appalling human toll.

The disaster adds another layer of complexity to the tough election Erdogan faces in May, which was already expected to be a close-run thing before the earthquake struck.

Inflation in Turkey is running at 64% thanks to Erdogan’s bizarre ideological aversion to raising interest rates. At the President’s behest, Turkey’s central bank has slashed rates by 10 percentage points in the last 18 months, even as prices soared.

There’s a grim irony to the timing of this disaster. It was the Turkish government’s inadequate response to the 1999 Izmit earthquake, coupled with the poor handling of the 2001 economic crash, that sealed the fate of the old guard and ushered in the era of Erdogan who swept to victory in 2002.

Some of the President’s opponents believe this symmetry is telling. Can Dündar, a prominent Turkish journalist and vocal critic of Erdogan, thinks his time is up. “In politics, you go the same way as you came,” he says.

Yet while Erdogan has been written off many times before, he’s proved himself to be an expert political survivor. Erdogan’s poll ratings may be at record lows, but Turkey’s fragmented opposition has failed to unite behind a single candidate.

At the geopolitical level, the May election could have profound consequences. After being ruled by an increasingly despotic Erdogan for so long, change at the top would radically alter Turkey’s political complexion. The country’s position within NATO, and its relationship with Russia, China, the US and EU, all hinge on the result.

For rescue-workers on the ground, and the families mourning the dead, the election is an abstract irrelevance.

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