After Theresa May’s Chequers proposals received cabinet backing a couple of weeks ago (I know, it feels more like months than weeks), there was a brief moment where a compromise deal with the EU looked possible.
That faint hope was quickly dashed by a series of resignations by senior Brexiteers, followed by wrecking amendments to the Trade and Customs Bill tabled by the hard-line Brexiteers in the ERG last week. Tory Brexiteers are in no mood to compromise and the government’s acceptance of Jacob Rees-Mogg’s amendments has turned Tory Remainers, initially supportive of the Chequers deal, against May.
The hard-line Brexiteer back benchers believe that with the Withdrawal Bill passed, Britain will simply leave the EU with no deal if Parliament rejects whatever package May brings back from Brussels. Getting a deal through Parliament looks unlikely for May, with Rees-Mogg and other members of the ERG already committing to vote down her Chequers deal. And, that’s before the EU inevitably extracts further concessions.
Indeed, Barnier seems to have already rejected the UK proposal as it stands, arguing Britain must cede more control to Brussels. A ‘no deal’ or ‘WTO’ outcome has always been seen favourably by extreme Brexiteers and it is clear that many are agitating towards this conclusion.
However, Brexiteers may have misplayed their hand. There is no majority in Parliament for no deal. As Conservative MPs have warned, if May is unable to muster a majority for her deal, her position as Prime Minister will become untenable. Even the apparently invincible Maybot could not survive getting her principle piece of legislation through Parliament. Whilst a general election seems unlikely (Tory MPs don’t want to lose their jobs and put a Marxist in government), a bitter leadership contest would ensue, with rival Tory factions manoeuvring to seize control of the Party.
And while the Tories fight amongst each other, Parliament would likely ‘take back control’ of the negotiations. They would have to ask the EU for an extension of Article 50, which is likely to be agreed as the EU does not want a no deal outcome. They may even sense a possibility for Brexit in its entirety to be reversed. With the government in crisis, Labour may move to back a second referendum, further destabilising the process.
No Brexit, which seemed inconceivable for most of the past two years, has for the first time become a real possibility and Brexiteers are in large part to blame. It’s unlikely the public will bail them out either. We are entering a summer of dire warnings about food shortages and lorries piling up on motorways in the event of no deal. While polling shows there has been no seismic shift against Brexit (yet) and some voters may disregard this as Project Fear II, no deal warnings may well have a big impact. Moderate voters who backed Brexit may stop and think, ‘is it worth it?’
With Chequers essentially dead upon arrival thanks to the intransigence of Tory Brexiteers, the most likely outcome now appears to be an almighty collision in the autumn and the extension of Article 50. Or maybe we will crash out with no deal, causing significant disruption and long-term damage to our relations with our closest neighbours and allies.
But it does not have to be like this. Brexiteers could have recognised the sub-optimal position we are in, and backed an imperfect compromise which enabled Britain to leave in March 2019. It didn’t have to be Chequers. An EEA exit, at least as a temporary ‘safe harbour’, would also be sensible, until Britain is ready to gradually diverge further.
The Brexit cause has been hijacked by ideologues, whose dogmatism could wreck the entire project. This process for moderate Leavers was never about rejecting our European friends and allies. We should be resetting our relations with Europe so that Britain can restore its independence while the EU pursues the integrationist ambitions we never shared.
To storm off with no deal, or inadvertently end up in a position where we’re begging to re-join, would be disastrous. Sensible Leavers must speak out.
