“Escalate to de-escalate” is a Russian military nuclear doctrine. Israel appears to be trying a non-nuclear version against Hezbollah. There are two potential problems with this: The other side may not be deterred. Sometimes action has its own momentum.
The Russian doctrine is the option of responding to a large conventional military attack with a small battlefield nuclear missile. Having done that, you say “See what we are prepared to do? Now, let’s talk”. Israel, having taken apart Hezbollah’s command and control ability (via exploding devices), and then hitting its missile launchers, is now going for the “nuclear option” of threatening a ground war in the hope this persuades Hezbollah to back down.
Even as the threat was made on Wednesday, Israel knew the Americans were putting together a 21-day ceasefire proposal. Washington was talking to trusted intermediaries in the Lebanese government who could get messages to Hezbollah, and directly to the Israelis. Despite the warlike noises from both Israel and Hezbollah, neither wants a ground war. That doesn’t mean there won’t be one. This column predicted the moment would come several times, although expected it to be in early summer.
However, there is a way out even if there is not much time to squeeze through it.
