The EU is bored of divided Britain

I’m in the middle of what might be called a “robust” Facebook exchange on the subject of – yes, you’ve guessed it – Trump and Brexit.

This is what I posted:

“I’m just back from Paris, where – just to spite me – the gilets-jaunes and the casseurs mostly took the weekend off. But there is still plenty of stuff to talk about. The world doesn’t stand still. Trump was cleared of collusion by Robert Mueller, which in my view means the Democrats now have to concentrate on what is truly repellent about this President – his policies, his racism and his crooked business dealings – not his bizarre, passive-aggressive relationship with Vladimir Putin. To continue to bang on about Russia isn’t going to get anyone anywhere (not unless liberals know something Mueller didn’t). Just as important, the Democrats have to sort themselves out and come up with a plan for running the country. Do they want to get elected or do they just want to look good on You Tube?

“But while I’m on, I wish to issue the wishy-washy equivalent of an impassioned plea about Brexit. It’s time to quit obsessing about a second referendum as if it was a magic bullet that, overnight, would restore trust, decency and confidence in Britain, easing us back into the sunlit uplands of June 22, 2016. The fact is, the result of a People’s Vote could go either way, with Leave, should it win, emboldened to adopt a scorched earth policy towards Brussels that would be more ghastly than anything we have seen so far. Moreover, even if Remain scraped home – which is as much as we could hope for – the result would leave the country every bit as divided and politically toxic as it is now.

“This is no time for the nuclear option. Instead, Remainers and Leavers alike need to to put their energy into supporting a Norway Plus-style deal that would keep us in the Single Market and the Customs Union while buying time for Parliament to think again about our long-term future.

“It isn’t enough that millions of Britons, me included, think that Brexit is absurd and deeply damaging to the national interest. The fact is, just as many people think the opposite is true, and whatever is finally agreed has to take this into account. In some particulars, the Leave side may even be right. In the lead-up to the referendum, did you believe everything about the EU was perfect? Did you say to yourself, yes, we need more of this? I don’t think so. What we want, and desperately need, before it’s too late, is a practical compromise that keeps us in Efta and the EEA and prevents a hard border in Ireland. Beyond that, everything becomes possible, including, 20 years from now, the possibility of the UK as one of the leading members of a reformed Europe.”

On Brexit, the response to this modest proposal has been, let us say, mixed. Some friends agree with me, Leavers as well as Remainers. But most are shocked. They want total victory or else the twisted joy of utter defeat. Many question what they presume to be my change of mind. Have I just given up or am I now, as a result of some bizarre indoctrination in Paris, the Manchurian Candidate, programmed to do my new masters’ bidding?

In fact, I have been ambiguous about a second referendum ever since the question of such an exercise first arose. To be clear, if I felt sure that Remain would win, I would go for it. I mean, why not? But that would assume that several million voters had changed their minds in recent weeks and months, of which I am far from convinced.

What I am convinced of is that Europe will not put up with much more of this. Emmanuel Macron – who, in the manner of Irish nationalists, sees England’s difficulty as France’s opportunity – is ready to pull the plug. Angela Merkel and her successor as leader of the CDU, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, are increasingly bored by the whole business. Even the Dutch have turned against us, with prime minister Mark Rutte openly mocking Theresa May at every opportunity. In fact, just about all EU leaders are at this stage keen to put an end to their misery, rather like the owners of an old, much-loved dog that has turned snappy and needs to be put down. Be warned. Barnier, Juncker and the rest are entirely serious when they warn that either Britain steps up or they will. The absurd Windmill farce of Brexit (“We never closed”) cannot, and will not, be allowed to continue.

So our options are narrowing. Time to get real, folks.

On the news this morning, I heard that a new poll was suggesting that as many as 55 per cent of voters would go for Remain second time round. But is this true? Isn’t this what we were told in the spring of 2016? The fact is, nobody knows. And even if it were true, that would leave 45 per cent of the electorate still convinced that quitting Europe was vital to the UK’s future prospects. If that 45 per cent (and possibly 50 per cent) haven’t been convinced of the good sense of EU membership after all that has happened in the last two years and nine months, they never will. In the meantime, the impact on our future politics can only be guessed at. I would expect the anti-EU, anti-immigrant far-Right to gain seats in the Commons. I would also expect the Tory and Labour parties to continue to fracture. The scabs would fade eventually, but the scars would remain.

Conversely, should Leave win again, probably by less than a million votes, No Deal would become a certainty, with all that that entails. Either that, or the current nightmare of stasis would carry on until I, and most of the population, became too old, too ill or too tired to take any further notice. Brexit, in its unresolved state, would just become the background noise to our distorted and broken politics, like the roar of a neighbour’s petrol mower during a Sunday afternoon garden party when it looks as if it might rain anyway.

So … if anyone can convince me that the chances of Leave winning a second referendum are remote, or if they can persuade me that 51/49 either way would somehow disperse the thunderclouds now hovering over Britain, I will be all for a People’s Vote. I want Britain to remain a full member of a reformed EU. But until then (and assuming Parliament doesn’t simply opt to revoke Article 50), I shall be on the stomp for Britain to rejoin the EEA and Efta. Let’s face it, two-thirds of a loaf has to be better than none.

P.S. I’m right about Trump as well.