EU poised to slap down Macron over Brexit fishing demands
“Throughout Brexit it has been important to remember that pretend deadlines are pretend and real deadlines are real,” says trade expert Sam Lowe. His statement is especially true today, the day before Boris Johnson’s arbitrary October 15 deadline for a Brexit trade deal. As this week’s European Council summit gets underway, a deal has yet to be agreed and significant differences remain in two areas: state aid and fisheries.
There has, as I wrote last week, been some movement towards a consensus on state aid, with Downing Street now accepting the need for a joint-state aid regime that goes further than those in standard trade deals. “We are beginning, and we are only just beginning, a discussion on… agreeing some provisions that, as it were, shape and condition the subsidy policy on both sides,” UK Chief Negotiator Lord Frost recently told a House of Lords committee. Frost’s statement was highly caveated, but nonetheless displayed a move towards an agreement on the matter.
British negotiators believe their move on state aid has left the ball firmly in the EU’s court as negotiations approach a crunch-point – and, crucially, EU analysts agree. As Mujtaba Rahman, a former European Commission official, writes in Politico today, Britain’s previous, hard-line position on state aid unified EU nation states, but now, as Downing Street looks increasingly flexible, “difficulties will arise between EU capitals. Just how much can they concede? At what point does a deal become preferable to no deal?”
The outcome, Rahman adds, will depend on the internal tug-of-war between Paris and Berlin. France’s President Macron sees opportunities in a no-deal Brexit for both Paris’ financial sector and French security and diplomatic clout in Europe and across the Atlantic. Germany’s Angela Merkel, however, considers such an outcome a lose-lose for both sides. On state aid, divisions between the two EU heavyweights may be less pronounced – both insist that the UK signs up to a joint-arbitration mechanism to avoid abuses of the system. On fisheries, however, tensions between Paris and Berlin will intensify.
Addressing the EU’s Committee of the Regions yesterday, Merkel requested that EU leaders “take into account the reality that an agreement has to be in the interests of both parties, in British interests as well as the interests of the 27-member European Union.” At first sight, this appears to be a rather bland and generic statement, and yet, in the context of fisheries, it is a pointed rebuke of France’s position.
Macron continues to insist that the terms of EU-UK fishing remain the same after Brexit, allowing French fishermen unrestricted access to UK waters (a no cherries for you, but one cherry for me approach). Merkel’s statement suggests she takes a contrary position, accepting that the fishing relationship will have to change to suit Britain’s interests as an independent coastal state, and potentially opening the door to a Norway-style agreement whereby fishing quotas are negotiated on a multi-annual basis.
British negotiators will take comfort in the historical fact that in battles between France and Germany over EU affairs, the Germans tend to win. And if Merkel’s position isn’t sufficiently powerful, EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier, a Frenchman, has also urged his own side to compromise on fishing. In a private meeting with ambassadors from the 27 EU countries a fortnight ago, he urged member states to show “flexibility” on the issue.
Tomorrow’s EU Council summit will begin with a briefing from Barnier. If he highlights continued disagreements over state aid, EU countries will comfortably revert to their unified no-cherry-picking mantra. But when, as is widely expected to happen in the coming days, Britain agrees in principle to an intense subsidy regime, all eyes will turn to France. Will Macron give up his hard line on fishing, or will Merkel have to slap him down?
Ultimately, with both Merkel and Barnier pushing hard for a good deal for both sides, Downing Street finds itself in a positive position. A deal may not come out of this summit, but the stage is being set for one in the coming weeks. Boris Johnson is expected to speak to European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen tonight – their second hastily-scheduled phone call in as many weeks.