EU to start gas rationing

EU energy ministers reached a joint agreement in Brussels today to ration gas use, as fear builds that Russia could halt all gas supplies to Europe in the coming months. 

Under today’s common energy-savings plan, all member states will strive to reduce gas consumption from August through to the end March by 15% – a target set by European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen. 

In the event of a total shutdown of Russian gas – a scenario VDL has described as “likely” – the deal states that this 15% reduction figure will become mandatory for all member states. 

Although there is deep division among members over the plan, the Czech Republic, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, declared following today’s high-stakes talks: “This was not a Mission Impossible!”. The enthusiastic statement from the Czech Republic suggested early tensions over reaching agreement between all member states have been resolved. But does that bear reality? 

Prior to the crisis meeting, there was deep scepticism over the feasibility of persuading member states to agree on a common target. Indeed, only last week Southern European states which rely less heavily on Russian gas – including Spain, Greece and Portugal – had all objected to an across the board 15% cut in gas. Leaders from several of these countries said they resented a plan which they view as designed to bail out Germany – the same country they believe adopted a self-righteous stance with them at the height of the eurozone crisis. 

Thus numerous opt-outs were expected today, with ministers offering up a host of reasons as to why their particular country shouldn’t be subject to the full 15% cut.  One of the reasons they have now all agreed is because the original deal has in fact been significantly watered down, with countries able to seek exemptions for an array of reasons. 

According to documents seen by the BBC, countries will be exempt from mandatory cuts, for instance, if they are island nations unconnected to the EU gas network, such as Ireland and Malta. Others can apply for exemptions if they exceed gas storage filling targets or if they are heavily dependent on gas for “critical” industries – the latter being somewhat open to interpretation. 

It remains to be seen just how widely these exemptions will be utilised by member states. But the various get-out clauses are likely to blunt the overall effect of the plan.

Despite the objections voiced to a such a centralised rationing plan, few European leaders are under any illusion about the volatility of the situation. 

Russia is preparing to further reduce gas flows into Europe imminently. Kremlin-backed gas giant, Gazprom, has said that from tomorrow, it will cut its gas supply through the vital Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to just 20%. The pipeline has already been operating at just 40% capacity for weeks, while Gazprom has cut gas supplies altogether to Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland, over their refusal to follow a Kremlin order to pay their bills in Russian roubles. 

Gazprom is citing a turbine repair as its sole motivation for doing do. But the German government insists there is no technical reason for limiting supply while Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has lashed out at the company, accusing Moscow of waging a “gas war” against Europe. The long game of gas blackmail has begun.