Would the EU welcome back Britain? Er… no

There’s a great deal of important news today, and as well as that in Britain at Westminster it is the Budget. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel is stepping down as party leader, signalling the beginning of the end of the Merkel era. This has an impact on the European balance of power. Trainee Napoleon President Macron, determined to stick it to the Brits, becomes the key leader in Europe. And Merkel’s decision makes those British europhiles who claimed until recently that there is “no crisis” in German politics look like twits.

More on Merkel and the Budget on Reaction later. But in the interim, a canny Reaction reader draws our attention to a fascinating piece from an impeccably connected pro-EU source asking whether the EU would really welcome back the UK if the Rejoiners and Second Referendum gang get their way. The answer, it turns out, is “no”

Fabian Zuleeg is Chief Executive and Chief Economist of the European Policy Centre. Earlier this month he laid out the obstacles to British re-entry or even to scrapping Brexit. They’ve moved on, he makes clear.

“While virtually nobody in the EU wanted to see the UK leave, the ground has shifted since the vote.”

Handling Brexit has forced the EU 27 to draw up clear red lines on what membership and association with the EU means. The process has helped the EU clarify its thinking on how it sticks together. There is less time and patience for unhelpful stragglers, like the UK, it seems.

That determination to fail to process why the second largest contributor chose to leave, and to go for “more Europe” in response, sounds rather barmy to me, considering how rocky the EU looks with the crisis in Italy unfolding, a full-scale rebellion in Eastern Europe, and a lack of German leadership. It illustrates, however, that British europhiles who hope Brexit can be scrapped or reversed have yet to engage their brains properly with the scale of the challenge.

The European Commission made clear earlier this month that the UK rebate would not apply if the UK wanted back in. That’ll look terrific on the Rejoin leaflets. Rejoin the EU – it’s even more expensive and bossy this time.

Zuleeg says that even if the UK did change its mind, the EU27 would not feel able to trust a change of heart because of the vagaries of British politics. That’s a fair point.

“There remains a robust streak of Euroscepticism in the UK. Even among those advocating continued membership, many are reluctant Remainers, seeing the benefits of economic integration but not of the European project as a whole. If the UK were to stay, it would remain an “awkward partner”, potentially even more prone to block progress given a reluctant populace at home.

I especially liked that “there remains a robust streak of Euroscepticism in the UK” remark. Well, er, yeah. Been there since Maastricht and strong as ever.

He concludes: “For the EU27, the possibility that the UK remains a member has all but disappeared from serious consideration. This will disappoint many Remainers, who are pinning their hope on a last-minute reprieve. But Brexiteers should be aware that the threat of no deal is also not seen as credible as most think that the UK will not commit economic suicide. If the UK cannot agree to an orderly withdrawal, the EU is willing to live with no deal.”

He has bad news for Ireland too. It sounds as though they’ll be forced to put up a hard border if it is no deal.

“Yes, this has many negative impacts, not least with regard to the Northern Ireland border. But the alternative outcome would erode the foundations on which the EU is built and goes against the collective political interest of the EU27 – and no EU member state is willing to do that.”

For this EU attempt to teach the naughty British a lesson, the Irish government put its economy on the table with the word of President Macron as security. A bold move.

I chaired a Wigtown book festival debate with Fabian Zuleeg recently. He runs a pro-EU think tank and is a respected, thoughtful commentator and analyst dedicated to the European Union project. Our discussion about “the future of Europe” on stage was polite and hopefully interesting. Off stage, I must admit I bridled quite a bit at his robust assertion that unless the UK surrenders in the Brexit talks then it will “suffer.” Historically, all but the most supine, self-loathing, declinist and pro-Brussels Brits tend to dislike this continental approach at persuasion. Hasn’t worked in the past. Won’t work this time.

As an anti-integrationist, who loves Europe but not the EU, I am delighted that the UK is leaving, and pleased to read that the obstacles to rejoining are considerable, if not insurmountable. Zuleeg’s analysis will be less welcome for Rejoiners, however. If they want back in, even if they somehow reverse the 2016 referendum, they’ll have to persuade the EU and sign up to all manner of terrible stuff. In Brussels and Britain, it’s going to be a sell.