Hardline Brexiteers and others of an anti-integrationist hue across Europe are increasingly gleeful about the threat posed to Ever Closer Union by the behaviour of the Visegrad Group, that sub-sept of former East Bloc countries made up of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
To those who see no virtue in the idea of European Union, it is not enough that Britain should leave; the remaining entity must then crumble into dust. Only then, like Scipio ordering the destruction of Carthage, will they truly have had the last laugh.
But how might this happen? One possibility that has very much come to the fore in recent months is that the former East Bloc will eventually either move into open revolt against the Centre, using immigration and a refusal to accept rulings of the European Court of Justice as their casus belli. In that event, the core Western states could finally lose patience and expel the errant states (including, by some estimates, Austria) from the Union in the manner of Christ cleansing the Temple.
Faced with the retro-nationalism of the East, crudely defined as “give us us the money but don’t think you can tell us what to do,” those opposed to the European Project think they see the venom that will eventually poison the entire construct, causing it to wither and die.
Believers must always be wary of believing their own propaganda. But the prospect of some sort of split can no longer be dismissed. Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron told a session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg of his fears of a “civil war” that could tear the EU apart. He did not say so, but no one doubts that his remarks were directed at those eastern-facing member states that, like abused children, still look towards Moscow, rather than Brussels, for guidance.
The French President, whose country is currently in the grip of a syndicalist insurrection, has no time for backsliders or those for whom history has no forward gear. Just as he refuses to be cowed by striking railworkers and airline staff, anarchists without a cause and a section – by no means a majority – of ideologically-frustrated students, so he is standing firm in support of the European dream as defined by its founders, all of them from the West European heartland, each with intimate memories of World War II.
“I don’t want to belong to a generation of sleepwalkers,” he declared, glaring at the ranks of the Far-Right, including, of course, France’s National Front. ‘I don’t want to belong to a generation that has forgotten its own past. I want to belong to a generation that will defend European sovereignty because [those who came before] had to fight to achieve it. And I will not give in to any kind of fixation on authoritarianism.”
Cue thunderous applause.
“Nationalism will lead Europe into the abyss,” the President went on. “We see authoritarianism rising all around us. The response should not be authoritarian democracy but the authority of democracy.”
Others in the chamber were quick to jump in. Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission President, was almost overcome with emotion. “Welcome back the real France,” he burbled. Guy Verhofstadt, prime minister of Belgium from 1999 to 2008, now the Parliament’s representative in the Brexit negotiations, was no less obsequious in taking up the theme du jour.
“Let us be clear,” he said, moving none too subtly into Churchillian mode. “There is no place, there never will be a place, for illiberal states in our Union. Freedom of expression, the rule of law: these are not just liberal principles. Above all, they represent European values.”
Quoting a newly-published report from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Verhofstadt railed against the “intimidating rhetoric and xenophobia” that last month secured a third term in office for Hungary’s uncompromisingly nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orban. Almost word for word, he said, the OSCE’s conclusions repeated criticisms previously made of the recent campaign that kept Vladimir Putin in place as President of Russia.
So what are we to make of it all? With Brexit slowly moving into the EU’s rear mirror, is there a realistic possibility that the EU will engage in a civil war that ends with the restoration of the nation state as the sole legitimate expression of democracy? Hardline Brexiteers, horrified at the idea of the EU becoming stronger and more prosperous without Britain, would say yes, and speed the day. They point not only to the ever-widening gap between East and West and to the expanding presence of eurosceptic parties in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria, but, specifically, to the growing difference of view between Berlin and Paris on the vexed question of reinforcing the Eurozone and further consolidating the financial powers of Brussels.
The truth is, Europe is in trouble. My own view, for what it’s worth, is that the Western, core member states will weather the storm and progress, slowly and fitfully, towards both necessary democratic reform and further economic and political integration. We may even – as called for yesterday by Verhofstadt, with a discernible nod of approval from Macron – see the first moves towards the creation of an EU intervention force. But the real question is, will the East Bloc join the West in its collective journey or will there be a Reverse-Rubicon moment at which the Visegrad states, and others, pull back and opt for a looser confederation – in other words a new version of a two-speed Europe? We must wait and see. Macron has made his pitch. How will Angela Merkel respond?
