Farage’s return intensifies Tory nightmare

Nigel Farage’s announcement that he will stand in Clacton and replace Richard Tice as Reform UK leader is the last thing Rishi Sunak wanted to hear.

The man who Ken Clarke described as the most successful politician of his generation is back. In an “emergency” announcement, Farage proclaimed that he was not just back for this election, he will also lead Reform for the next five years. 

Farage was introduced by the man whose job he was taking. Tice, who seemed quite happy to tender his resignation publicly with a tacit admission that he hasn’t got the gusto, tried his best to big up the following act. “How do we energise this election?” he asked. Babbling on about being in eighth gear, turning on the turbo-chargers and rocket boosters, Tice gave way to the star of the show. 

Speaking of his recent campaign trips to places like Clacton and Ashfield, Farage said he had often been asked: “Nigel, why aren’t you standing?”. He was, naturally, humble in his response: “Somehow they felt I was letting them down… I guess I have been a champion for these people.” “I felt a terrible sense of guilt,” he added. 

He said he will be launching his candidacy at midday tomorrow in Clacton-on-Sea and told his fellow employee at GB News, Christopher Hope, that Reform will get “many, many more votes than the four million UKIP got in 2015.”

This is, likely, terrible news for the Conservative party which Farage lambasted as “standing for nothing”. A new MRP poll from YouGov out today – conducted before Farage’s announcement – suggests that Labour will win a greater landslide than they did in 1997 and that the Tories will have the lowest number of MPs since 1906. The predictions are as follows:

Labour 422
Conservatives 140
Lib Dems 48
SNP 17
Green 2

This would give Labour a majority of 194, while the already dire result predicted for the Tories is likely too generous, now that Farage will be splitting the Tory vote. Reform UK is currently polling around 12 per cent on average in the polls but has seen some highs of 15-18 per cent recently.

A huge problem for the Tory party is that it is deeply unpopular with young people – polls suggest that only eight per cent said they would vote Conservative. 

The main headache for Sunak now is that those on the right who were voting Conservative because they felt there was no alternative may now have a more appealing alternative. Despite positive polling, Reform UK was a fringe party yesterday – now it may rack up millions of votes. Those who were voting Tory tactically to keep Starmer out may now decide that Labour will win regardless and that Reform could be a stronger opposition. Either way, Sir Keir will be pleased with how things are going.

Today’s announcement is, if not a game changer, then at least a spark of excitement in an otherwise insipid campaign.

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