Fighting rages along the Ukrainian frontline

Ukraine’s deputy defence minister has said Ukrainian troops are “shifting to offensive actions” in some regions, fuelling speculation that, after months of raids and drone strikes, the long-awaited spring assault has finally begun.

In a post on Telegram, Hannah Mailer wrote that the eastern city of Bakhmut is the “epicentre of hostilities” and that Russian forces were on the defensive in the east and south of Ukraine. 

Ukrainian commanders also claim to have made marginal gains in several areas. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, said they were “moving forward” on the Bakhmut front amid 29 combat clashes in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

It comes after Russia claimed last night to have killed 250 Ukrainian troops in a thwarted major offensive in southern Donetsk. “The enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front,” Russia’s defence ministry said. “A total of six mechanised and two tank battalions of the enemy were involved.” It added that “the enemy” had had “no success”.

However, Ukrainian officials have denied Russia’s claims that the offensive has begun and said the Kremlin was lying to undercut morale. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Russia was “repelling… a global offensive that does not yet exist.” Ukraine made it clear over the weekend that there would be no announcement when its counter-offensive begins.  

Who to believe? Individual reports should be treated with scepticism. Both sides have an obvious incentive to muddy the waters. Yet taken together, the reports suggest a multi-pronged attack that stops short of an all-out assault. Western officials told The Economist that the attacks “do in fact mark the start of the offensive” and added that Russia’s defensive lines “could be more fragile than thought”.

Analysts have said that the Ukrainian attacks could be designed to probe the Russian frontline for weaknesses ahead of a more concentrated commitment of troops and firepower. With 600 miles of frontline, Ukraine cannot afford to spread itself too thin. At the same time, one promising route to battlefield success would be to force Russia to defend multiple, less well-reinforced points at once, stretching its own units.  

Reports also hint at Western-supplied kit being put to good use. Alexander Khodakovsky, the commander of a pro-Russian militia in Donetsk claimed the Ukrainians had deployed German-made Leopard battle tanks for the first time in the area around Vuhledar, suggesting that NATO-trained troops have entered the Ukrainian battlefield.

Kyiv may not have formally declared that its spring offensive has begun, but signs on the ground are that the months of relative stasis on the Ukrainian frontline are over. 

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