On the morning of June 23, 2016, I was one of many who were sure that Remain and David Cameron would win the EU referendum. I was equally sure, later that year, that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump to become the first female President of the United States.
That’s what the polls were saying, and who was I to disagree? So when I tell you now that Emmanuel Macron will win this Sunday’s French presidential election by something like 55 per cent of the vote to 45 per cent for his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen, you should take my prediction — that is to say, the prevailing view — with a pincée de sel.
