General election 2019: Farage boosts Johnson
Boris Johnson has received a potentially game-changing boost to his election campaign. After weeks, if not months, of a standoff between Nigel Farage and the Conservative party, the Brexit party leader announced today that he has decided to stand down hundreds of candidates in the 317 constituencies won by the Tories (then led by Theresa May) in 2017. Farage announced that his party will instead focus its efforts on fighting parties backing Remain, including in Labour marginal seats where a majority of constituents voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.
This was revealed by Farage in a speech delivered to a Brexit party election rally in Hartlepool today. Speaking to a crowd of the party faithful, Farage announced that he made his decision in the light of recent Brexit party private polling, which suggested that standing Brexit party candidates in 600 seats would split the Leave vote and lead to a hung parliament.
Farage’s concerns are also justified, from the perspective of Brexiteers, by much recent polling that has suggested a majority of both the Conservative and Brexit party membership are in favour of Johnson’s deal. Farage came under fire when twenty candidates who were set to stand for the Brexit party in the election resigned out of fear that Farage’s strategy would jeopardise Brexit altogether.
The war of words over Johnson’s Brexit deal has given way to a more conciliatory tone. According to Farage, another crucial factor informing his decision to take Brexit party candidates out of the election race was the promise from Johnson’s side not to extend the free trade negotiations beyond 2020 in a campaign video shared on Twitter on 10 November. In the same video, the Prime Minister also stated his ambition to negotiate for a “on the model of a Super Canada plus arrangement”. Farage said that Johnson’s ambitions now sound “a bit more like the Brexit we voted for.”
The choice of location for the speech was also significant – an emphatic 70% of voters in Hartlepool voted to leave the European Union in 2016. This is the Brexit party heartlands. It is a hugely important symbolic moment in the campaign, one which could mean that Brexit party-supporting voters in the Midlands and the North may now be more comfortable voting for the Conservatives – if Farage implies it is okay.
The picture is complex though. Chris Curtis at the polling company, YouGov, points out that the Brexit party presents more of a threat to the Conservatives in Labour marginals than it does in Tory-held seats anyway.
Moreover, the Tories have already squeezed the Brexit party vote in the polls in these areas too. There are signs of a strong swing to the Conservatives in Labour-held seats such as Bridgend, Workington, and Stoke-on-Trent Central which means that they could make significant gains at the expense of Labour. The Brexit party, on the other hand, was already trending downwards in the polls. A sober analysis would suggest that Farage had seen that the grand strategic game was up and accordingly played a more restrained hand.
There are still potential stumbling blocks ahead for the main parties. The Conservatives could get distracted from the core message of their campaign – “get Brexit done” – as they try to get voters worried about Labour and the economy. Yesterday, the Conservatives produced a dossier which attempted to show that Labour have made budget commitments which come to a total of £1.2 trillion of extra spending.
Trying to fight labour too much on the terrain of public spending may prove to be the political equivalent of wrestling with a pig – both participants get dirty, and the pig enjoys it. This is because, while the Conservatives will wish to exploit their reputation for relative economic competence, they must also beware the popularity of Corbynomics. Matthew Goodwin, Professor at the University of Kent, today drew attention to a YouGov poll, conducted on 8th November. This shows significant, majority support for policies such as a 50% tax on those earning more than £124,000 per year and the renationalisation of railways.
Corbynism – nationalisation and punitive taxation – is rather popular with at least half the country, even if Corbyn the man is deeply unpopular. That makes the final weeks of the campaign potentially difficult for the Tories.