General election 2019: Young voter surge will unnerve the Tories

Public executions are never a pretty sight and Andrew Neil’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn last night was no exception. Most analysis focused on the excruciatingly long section on antisemitism where Jeremy Corbyn repeatedly resisted making any apology for how the crisis has been handled by Labour. He repeated his usual platitudes which rang hollow. If it had ended there the interview would have been merely disastrous. Instead, it degenerated into the catastrophic as Corbyn floundered over Brexit, spending promises, and taxation. Apparently unused to serious scrutiny, Corbyn came across as ill-prepared and petulant whenever pressed.

It set the agenda for today. This morning, almost certainly fuelled by a desire to try and reduce coverage of the interview, Corbyn held a press conference where he claimed the NHS would be at risk from a post-Brexit trade deal with the USA. He brandished a 451-page dossier detailing meetings over a two year period between 2017 to 2019 of the UK-US Trade and Investment Working Group, copies of which were then handed out to journalists in attendance. Corbyn proclaimed the proof was in these pages.

The two key points which have attracted the most attention were a stated US desire for “total market access” and discussions of extending drug patents which could drive up costs. Other points of potential controversy include whether a deal might mean weakening food labelling standards. However, these claims have already met pushback. Johnson quickly declared: “The NHS is in no way on the table.” He condemned Labour’s actions as a diversionary stunt. International Trade Secretary Liz Truss also hit out against Labour peddling “conspiracy theories” and said that neither the NHS nor drug prices would be on the table in negotiations.

Meanwhile, some commentators have claimed that the leaked dossier merely represents the UK and the US exploring each other’s positions with no proof of any agreement on issues such as drug pricing. Similarly, seeking “total market access” is the usual starting position of the US in any set of trade negotiations with the expectation that the other party will then indicate the areas that are off limits.

At this point the matter becomes one of trust. Do informed parties trust Johnson not to cave on the NHS and drug pricing later on? On a perceptual level, do voters trust Corbyn’s claims or Johnson’s? In an election where many voters dislike and distrust both parties and their leaders this is far from clear.

Meanwhile, senior Labour figures do seem to realise that distraction alone is not sufficient with both Keir Starmer and John McDonnell offering public apologies to the Jewish community over how the antisemitism crisis has been handled. Similarly, Boris Johnson has issued an apology for Islamophobia within the Conservative Party following criticism by the Muslim Council of Britain and the Tory candidate for Luton South Parvez Akhtar. While some might greet his apology with scepticism, the Scottish Conservatives proceeded to suspend their Glasgow Central candidate Flora Scarabello, who is accused of using anti-Muslim language.

The SNP also launched its manifesto today focusing on its demands for a second referendum on both Brexit and Scottish independence, as well as increased funding for the NHS and scrapping Trident. Sturgeon has indicated that if the SNP were to enter into a coalition with Labour a second referendum on independence and the NHS funding increases would be vital preconditions of any deal.

A final surge in voter registration that took place on the Tuesday deadline has prompted speculation as to its effects. Figures show 660,000 people signed up yesterday and of them, 252,000 were under the age of 25 and 207,000 were aged between 25 and 34. This surge in young voters could unsettle the Conservatives. While recent polls have given them a strong a lead, a spike in turnout, especially one driven by young voters, could upset the predictions. It would tip things towards Labour, who are already inching closer, aided by the downward squeeze on Liberal Democrat support.