Michael Theurer is the new man to watch in Europe. The German MEP is economics chief of Germany’s Free Democratic Party, and its Brexit spokesman in the EU.
In an interview in the British press earlier this week – one that was oddly enough largely ignored by the rest of the UK media – Mr Theurer called on Germany to push for a friendly and amicable deal with the UK. He also criticised Germany’s leadership, demanding that Berlin create a special ‘Brexit cabinet to give the country convincing leadership in EU negotiations.
More pertinently, the 50-year old economist and former Swabian mayor, warned that it would be a terrible mistake for the EU to humiliate Britain by punishing it for leaving with a bad ‘crash-Brexit’ deal.
Why so? Well, Mr Theurer claims that German industrialists and trade union leaders are seriously worried that their own industries will suffer unless a positive deal is struck with the British; one that works for all sides as our business interests are immutably linked. It’s worth quoting his remarks in full: “People are only just starting to realise the full dimensions of this. There could be WTO duties, visas, all kinds of things. Small enterprises are very concerned. There are also a lot of German companies that rely on financing from the City of London, and they are very happy with the service they get now.”
Yet that’s not what we are hearing on the official German grapevine. Quite the reverse. Only a few weeks ago Germany’s leading industrial representatives warned that they would not be lobbying for preferential access to the single market for the UK in any post- Brexit arrangement, that maintaining integrity of the single market was their goal. It was a tall order to swallow even then, as we know that the German car industry depends on its lucrative UK market for exporting its cars as well as its intricate supply chain. The Romanian market, by contrast, is tiny.
Those sorts of optimistic noises are not the ones that Mr Theurer is hearing. Indeed, some say the car manufacturers only put their heads above the parapets after behind the scenes persuasion from Angela Merkel’s coalition government, to scare the Brits and make Brexit negotations still more complicated.
What makes Mr Theurer worth watching out for, though, is not only because his views sound so sensible – and positive for the UK as well as rest of Europe. But because his views may soon become more influential: the MEP is standing as an FDP candidate in this September’s election in Germany.
After several years in the doldrums, his Free Democratic party is pushing ahead in the polls and is likely to play a significant role after the elections. This is a big turnaround from 2013 when the FDP, now run by the former racing driver, Christian Lindner, failed to win enough votes to make it to the Bundestag.
But earlier this summer Lindner’s liberal, pro-market right of centre party had a record win in North Rhine-Westphalia, notching up 13% of the votes. Since then the opinion polls put the FDP on about 10% – enough to give it sufficient sway to challenge the two big CDU and SD parties.
Merkel’s Christian Democrat party is still expected to get the most votes on September 24. However, Lindner’s FDP may yet turn out to be an important albeit junior partner in any new coalition that Mutti puts together with the Social Democrats.
If so, that means that Mr Theurer’s ambition of stitching together a workable Brexit deal becomes more possible as the FDP will be able to hold the CDU to account. To add context, Theurer is also a member of the EU’s influential committee on budgetary control, the committee on Economics and Monetary Affairs and a deputy member of the industry committee, so has some pulling power.
He was away on holiday when I tried to reach him to find out more. But I did catch up with someone who has worked closely with him in the EU who says: “Theurer is a doer and a thinker, someone who wants positive results for all parties through sensible political negotiation. He would like to see the EU and the UK working closely together on a deal that suits everyone while respecting the UK’s decision to leave.”
“If Theurer says that German industrialists are telling him they are worried about a crash-Brexit that pushes everyone off a cliff-edge- not just the British – then that is the case. He is not one for fancy headlines. He wants a workable solution.”
What is so refreshing is the way Theurer obviously disagrees with the EU thinking of Jean-Claude Juncker and other top policy-makers that humiliating the UK is the only option, and the only way to stop other countries from leaving the EU.
Like his FDP leader, he is sceptical about the long-term health of the eurozone, arguing that Greece – and other southern states – should be allowed to leave the euro in order for them to become competitive again. Yet the FDP is solidly pro-EU, calling for more internal market integration on energy and security, the party remains opposed to using German taxpayer’s money to bail out the southern EU states.
Which is what makes Theurer’s intervention at this stage of the negotiations all the more powerful. Pieter Cleppe, top euro watcher at the Open Europe think-tank which is also hoping for a long-term positive ‘liberal Brexit’ , is optimistic. “This is very positive for the UK and for the EU. Germany is as divided as the UK over Brexit so it’s great to hear his thoughtful comments. With the FDP looking as though it will emerge to be an important voice in the forthcoming German elections, it may well be the FDP is a position to influence the EU’s attitude. German opinion is also moving in this direction. The idea that punishing the UK will stop other countries is ridiculous.”
The juicy question now is whether a transitional period post-2019 could morph into a more formal membership of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association, a free trade area made up of Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. EFTA operates in parallel with the EU and its members participate in the single market but they have special arrangements on freedom of movement.
Most Cabinet ministers – even the most excitable Brexiteers – appear to be supporting the idea that a long transitional period is now vital, maybe up to five years. Even Brexit supremo, David Davis, has hinted that the UK could work with the EFTA court for joint oversight for legal issues. It’s worth remembering that EFTA was set up in 1960 for countries either ‘unwilling or unable’ to join the EEC, the predecessor of the EU. As a permanently unwilling member of the EU, the UK might find that being part of EFTA is just the ticket.