I keep reading that next week’s general election is all about Brexit, or else that it’s all about the NHS. And both are true. It’s all about both of them and each is more important than the other.
So where do we go from there?
Last month, in the dying days of what he said was the worst Parliament since, well, ever, Boris Johnson constantly banged on about the need to Get Brexit Done so that the British people could concentrate on what really mattered – the NHS (yes), wages (yes), the economy (obviously), policing, schools, housing, roads, railways, Uncle Tom Cobley and all.
Jeremy Corbyn was more circumspect about Brexit. He wanted it un-done, or at least somehow pushed off to one side so that the country could get on with … and here he listed off exactly the same range of issues on which Johnson had just claimed copyright.
Both leaders were unabashed about where the multi-billions would come from to turn the economy around and make Britain a land fit for heroes: borrowing – in other words, other people’s money, mostly foreigners’. This is a mistake. Ask my grandson.
For the Tories, who introduced austerity in 2010 precisely to cut back on borrowing, big spending is now the order of the day. Never mind the profligacy, feel the votes. Boris Johnson was entirely blasé about this. He had only been PM for (insert number of days here) and it was a case of new government, new policies. Year Zero, he might almost have said. Hairs shirts, like Theresa May, were just sooo last year.
Corbyn, of course, didn’t have to apologise for the even-more lavish and unstinting spending spree that he promised would transform the nation because he had never been in power and was responsible for absolutely nothing that had ever happened. Not only that, but he views the rich as a living resource, ripe for plucking. New Labour, old hat. Trust me, he implored the voters, and you’ll be farting through silk.
Yes, but what about Brexit? According to Boris, the deal with Europe is oven-ready, with the giblets removed. Just pop it in the Aga, leave for 12 months and, voila! Time to get out the carving knife, with the largest slices going to everybody, rich and poor alike. Turns out that it’s self-basting, too, so no need to get involved in detail – just serve it up and pour on the gravy, with cake all round for afters.
And Corbyn? As a Marx-man, he has no time for middle-class metaphor. He’s a realist. His plan is to spend the next 12 months negotiating a much better deal for Britain, complete with membership of the Customs Union, that he knows the EU are just gagging for. The twist is that he will then put his deal to a referendum, with Remain as the second option. Which way would his vote go in this scenario – to the deal to which his name was attached, or to the capitalist club he spent all his past life opposing?
Not that there isn’t an alternative. You could always place your X against the Liberal Democrats, endorsing the Jill Swinson Line that Brexit should simply be annuled, like an unconsummated marriage or an item from Amazon ordered in haste only to be regetted as a bit daft the following day. The problem in this case is that even Swinson herself doesn’t think much of this as an idea. She just threw it out there in the knowledge that it had about as much chance of coming true as of her becoming prime minister. Three weeks into the campaign and she’s at one with the SNP: give us this day our second referendum that we may atone for having voted Leave in the first place.
Less than compelling.
So here’s my manifesto:
On Brexit: it was a stupid idea, but we’re stuck with it. If the Tories win, the Boris deal will, and should, go through. Otherwise, whatever Labour manages to cobble together (including a Customs Union) has to be put to a second referendum within three months of the election, with Remain as the alternative. If the deal wins, it has to be accepted it, no ifs, no buts. If Remain wins, Corbyn (or whoever) must briefly don sackcloth and ashes before going on to press the case for a reformed Europe.
On the NHS, jobs, schools, housing (all that stuff), I pledge there will be more to spend, paid for out of graduated increases in taxation (up to a top rate of 55 per cent on incomes above £250,000) as well as a sharp rise in the take from those global corporations that currently pay little or nothing. In respect of individuals, capital gains will be counted as income. Tax loopholes will be closed not just in theory, but in practise. On the plus side, investors placing risk capital into British companies will enjoy an increased benefit in tax terms until such times as their investment has clearly paid off.
As a result, the very rich will be in future be a little worse off; the merely well off will hardly notice the difference; and the rest of us, most obviously the low-paid, the sick, single parents and the elderly, will find life that little bit easier. Does it have to be £20 billion here and £20 billion there?
Population growth in the UK is frightening. The prospect of 75 million inhabitants, most of them living in England, is not one to be welcomed. That said, there’s only so much we can do about it. If we remain in the EU, Europeans will continue to move here, though I would guess at a rate significantly less than after 2004. In respect of the rest of the world, a points system seems fair. In general, smaller families is the way forward and we need to talk about how that is best achieved.
On borrowing: my Government will go with confidence to the markets to raise capital but will not exceed targets laid down in the Queen’s Speech and approved by the Bank of England.
On defence: the Navy needs another half-dozen destroyers and frigates and better defences for its new aircraft carriers. It also needs enough F35s to justifiy the existence of the carriers. Otherwise, what’s the point of them? The RAF needs more reconnaissance planes and tankers. The Army and Marines need more recruits, not fewer. If Britain wishes to boast of its military capability, the reality has to match the rhetoric.
At this point, I cannot avoid laying stress on climate change. Britain can’t afford to go mad. We can’t pretend that the world as it is can be undone overnight. But, working with governments and the private sector, we can substantially increase spending on everything green-related, including electric vehicles, leading to an accelerating fall in greenhouse emissions. It’s painful to contemplate, and the returns will not all arrive in a rush. What we must realise, Leavers and Remainers alike, is that if we ignore what is happening to the world around us – if we pretend it isn’t happening – we won’t, as a species, live to regret it.
Finally, it is time to make good on past pledges on apprenticeships. My Government will commit an additional billion pounds a year to state-approved schemes designed to bring suitable young people not attracted to a university education up to the technical standards required by a twenty-first century green economy. Should two million be required, the cash will be found.
And, er, that’s it. If only I was standing. But I’m not. I leave you with this insight. The election is about everything. That’s the truth of it. But if it’s not, first and foremost, about Brexit, then prepare yourselves for another three years of stasis in which nothing is accomplished. Don’t let that happen. Do what you know to be right. Get Something Done!