Nothing is inevitable, but it looks as if the Ashes series in Australia will go ahead in December. Frankly, it would have been shameful if England had decided not to go, all the more so when you remember that in late summer 2020, West Indies and Pakistan both came to England to play Test series, even though no Covid vaccine was yet available and players were confined to live in a bubble.
England will doubtless travel in some apprehension, and not only on account of the quarantine restrictions imposed on players and their families. There are good cricketing reasons too. This looks like the weakest England team to tour Australia for a very long time.
The term world-class is often bandied about and has no precise meaning. Nevertheless, we all know roughly what it signifies. We may all agree that the word may be attached to only four English cricketers today; Joe Root, Ben Stokes, James Anderson and Stuart Broad. Stokes is not in the squad announced this week.
It is hinted that he may yet join it, but it looks doubtful. He took a break from cricket to “protect his mental health” and, in any case, now requires a second operation on a broken finger.
As for pace bowlers, Anderson and Broad are in the veteran department, and both, over the years, have usually been more successful in England than abroad.
Anderson had a great series in Australia the last time we won there, but that was ten years ago. If both are to play in the Tests, England surely needs five bowlers because, at their age, neither Anderson nor Broad can be expected to do much donkey-work.
There is nearly always a lot of that in Australia because the home side usually runs up some big totals. Then in the absence of Stokes, England has no top-class all-rounder. Chris Woakes is the nearest to being that, but his bowling record in Australia on the last tour was poor.
Two players may become world-class: Ollie Pope and Ollie Robinson. And yet, Pope’s Test match batting average is in the low thirties, and Robinson hasn’t yet played a Test abroad.
The batting depends excessively on Root. He has been in marvellous form this year, but can it last? He has not made a Test hundred in Australia. He will be targeted by a very good pace attack: Pat Cummins, Josh Hazelwood and Mitchell Starc. They will believe that if they get Root cheaply, England will crumble.
Jonny Bairstow used to be a good Test batsman – he has six Test hundreds to his name, one on the last tour of Australia. He has since made himself into one of the best three or four white-ball batsmen in the world, but, in doing so, seems to have lost, or mislaid, the ability to score heavily in Tests.
When Andrew Strauss captained the team that won the Ashes in 2010/11, he opened with Alastair Cook, and they were followed by Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell. All made Test hundreds in that series.
All finished their careers with a Test match average in the 40s, as did the wicketkeeper Matthew Prior. Root will have no colleague with a Test average higher than 35.
Usually, when England have won a series in Australia, they have had outstanding pace bowlers: Larwood in 1932-3, Tyson and Statham in 55-56, John Snow with 29 wickets in 70-71, Graham Dilley and Gladstone Small in 87-8, Anderson and assorted helpers in 2010-11. Jofra Archer might have filled that role this winter, but he is absent injured. Mark Wood may do so, but he too is injury prone.
These successful fast bowlers have also usually been well supported by spinners, capable of a holding action but also of taking wickets when conditions are right: Hedley Verity on the Bodyline tour, Bob Appleyard and Johnny Wardle supporting Tyson and Statham, the captain Ray Illingworth and Derek Underwood backing up Snow, then Phil Edmonds and John Embury in 87-8 and, notably Graeme Swann in Strauss’s team.
England has two spinners in their party: Jack Leach and Dom Bess. Neither has established himself as a regular Test player, unlike Australia’s off-spinner Nathan Lyon who has played 100 Tests and taken 399 wickets. Against England, he has exercised sufficient control to enable Australia to field only four front-line bowlers.
Australia will start favourites. This is almost always the case, even when England have looked much stronger than Root’s team does now.
However, Australia is not without problems either. They haven’t played Test cricket since losing at home to what was eventually, thanks to injuries, almost a second-string Indian side at the beginning of this year. Their bowling is very good, but their batting relies excessively on Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne.
Smith’s record against England is almost Bradmanesque. If he continues in that vein, Australia will surely run up some big totals, and it’s hard to see England matching them. On the other hand, if he falls away more than somewhat while Joe Root bats as well as he has throughout this year, the series may be more even than most suppose.
It’s an odd tour altogether. England is also taking what is called a shadow squad of fourteen to Australia. Since there are no preliminary matches against State sides, the Test squad and the Shadow one will play two warm-up games against each other.
Let us hope these are treated as real competitive games, not these ghastly twelve-a-side ones with batsmen retiring when they have made a decent score and frequent substitutes being used. Such games are little better than net practice.
The Shadow squad will then play a four-day match against Australia A before returning home in time for Christmas when only the First Test has been played. Anyone hoping to be promoted to the Test squad won’t have long to make an impression.
The pessimism of English fans and the media recalls the early weeks of the 1986/7 series. Before the First Test, after matches against State sides, one English journalist declared that there was little wrong with Mike Gatting’s side except that they couldn’t bat, couldn’t bowl and couldn’t field.
They went on to win the series 2-1 with two matches drawn. One reason they were able to do so was that, except in the fifth Test, which was lost, they made big first-innings scores: 456, 592 for 8 declared, 455, 349. Chris Broad scored three hundreds, David Gower, Ian Botham, Mike Gatting and Chris Richards one each.
Well, England has not made many big first-innings scores recently. Until they make a habit of doing that, they will have little chance of winning Test matches.
They can’t leave it all to Root. They need the openers, Rory Burns and Haseeb Hameed, then Dawid Malan, Jonny Bairstow and Ollie Pope to concentrate and bat for hours.
In the hundred years since Test cricket resumed after the First World War, England has won six Ashes series in Australia, seven if you counted 1978/9 when defections to the Kerry Packer circus had reduced Australia to fielding what was almost a second XI. There have been drawn series in the days when draws were more common than they are now, but far more lost ones.
This looks like a weak England side, but it’s hard to believe that there are players with stronger claims who have rejected and have made a cogent case for selection.
The coach-selector Chris Silverwood has gone for the players he knows and has worked with. In any case, he has said he doesn’t think an Ashes series is the place to make your Test debut. That would usually be true, though one can think of players who won their first cap against Australia and went on to have great careers: Colin Cowdrey, Geoff Boycott, Kevin Pietersen.