There is a paradox. This could be one of the most important elections in modern history – but the campaign itself might not matter. Not many do.
Friends who were involved with the Tories’ October 1974 campaign claim that it was a good fighting retreat, based on Ted Heath’s call for national unity. Labour had been hoping for a repeat of 1966, when a tiny majority became a massive one. But in October 1974, although Labour did win an overall majority, which they had failed to do in February, it was only by three.
Since then, there have been nine General Elections. In my view, only two campaigns influenced the outcome. In 1992, John Major’s own homespun and soap-box style played to his strengths: decency and integrity. Neil Kinnock’s glitz played to his liability: shallowness. In 2010, The Tories seemed to have Gordon Brown at their feet, and then tripped over those feet. As it happens, that was providential. If there had been an outright Tory majority, it would have been much harder to govern, with the Liberals reinforcing Labour’s opposition to Tory economic policy. But in the aftermath of the Election, that was not how it seemed to most Tories. David Cameron’s failure to seal the deal with the electorate added to his problems in sealing the deal with his own party.
But in all the other seven elections, I see no reason to believe that the outcome would have been much different if voting had taken place on the first day of the campaign. That may also be true this time. Though there will probably be the odd wobble, that will not affect the result, especially as Messrs Corbyn and Farron are much more likely to stumble and misspeak. Theresa May tells us how much she admires Geoffrey Boycott and her election technique is likely to come straight out of his coaching manual: bat and pad together, concentration absolute, all risky shots eliminated. It is hardly stuff to make the heart race. There will not be a stream of taxis converging on Lords to savour the stroke-play. But dogged should do it.
Mrs May could have two related problems: complacency and boredom. If the polls all seem to be pointing to a Tory landslide, there is the risk that Tories may not bother to vote, especially as even political obsessives are finding it hard to work up much interest in this election. But the PM does have one asset: Jeremy Corbyn. What about a poster with Corby walking into No 10. “Thinking of staying at home? Don’t blame us if he moves home.” That said, apathy is more likely to affect Labour voters, appalled by their Leader. There is a crucial election-deciding difference. Most Tory voters are comfortable with Theresa May. Only a minority of Labour voters are at ease with Mr Corbyn.
It was not hard to predict that Labour’s policy on Europe and Trident would come under scrutiny. Anyone who has failed to work that out exposes themselves as too stupid even to lead UKIP. That absurd leadership position is currently held by a Mr Nuttall, aptly named. To judge by Sunday’s performance, Jeremy Corbyn is a nut or two short of a Nuttall. If this goes on, Labour could be struggling to stay in the twenties and long before polling-day, the next Labour leadership contest will already have begun.
In that contest, the party will have to take a basic decision and confront a choice that many senior figures would prefer to fudge. Should it remain a socialist party, or should it explicitly become a Blairite one, a party of reform from the centre, not of radical social reconstruction: a party that could possibly win power. That is a basic question. Yet it is as unresolved as Jeremy Corbyn’s stance on Europe. This should bring a gloating chuckle to the lips of anyone who believes in indefinite Tory government. There is every likelihood that Labour chaos will stretch well into the 2020s.
As that spectacle unfolds, there are good reasons to hope that the Tories’ great wound may be about to heal. Just as Britain as a whole never really joined Europe, that was a fortiori true of the Tory party. There were always a few enthusiasts, but their numbers never grew. These days, they are mainly in the House of Lords. Dear Ken Clarke, the last of the Eu-hicans, will keep the Twelve Stars flying high for another Parliament in the Commons. But when it comes to traction on the debate, he might as well be flying the Red Flag.
On the other wing, there were a claque of swivel-eyed fanatics who tended to drive away potential supporters. No-one wanted to listen to them reciting the Maastricht Treaty backwards. But the great majority of Tory MPs were moderate Euro-sceptics. Whenever they heard of some new European incursion into British affairs, there would be an angry reaction, followed by: “We can’t leave the damned thing, can we?”
Now we have. From a Tory perspective, that could only reversed if it could be blamed for an economic crisis. At most a handful of Tories would want that to happen. So we are Brexiting. Although there are bound to be further disagreements about the exact nature of the settlement with Europe, that is manageable. The great schism will have been exorcised. Even without Labour’s help, life will be much easier for Mrs May and her successors. For the Tories, this could be a very fruitful election indeed – and not just in the short-term.
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Iain Martin and the team make sense of the news, providing commentary and analysis on the stories that matter in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture.