Good COP, bad COP: Will the climate conference succeed?

The eyes of the world will turn to Glasgow on Sunday, as the largest gathering of global leaders ever assembled on British soil begins.

The event runs for 12 days with up to 25,000 guests attending. World leaders will be joined by tens of thousands of negotiators, government officials, businessmen and women, journalists and climate activists such as Sir David Attenborough and, needless to say, Greta Thunberg.

Yet crucially, leaders from some of the highest-emitting countries will be absent: neither Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro nor Russian President, Vladimir Putin will be there. China’s President, Xi Jinping, will tune in via video link. 

Although the UK is hosting the gathering under the presidency of the former business secretary, Alok Sharma, the event is in partnership with Italy. While Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is chairing a pre-COP G20 meeting in Rome this weekend, the lack of credit given to the Italians for their role in the summit has gone down badly in Rome. However, once the real negotiations begin over achieving net zero carbon, it’s more likely that Draghi will have the the upper hand as Johnson will be hard-pushed to match the Italian’s negotiating expertise. Read Robert Fox for more.

But what exactly can we expect from COP26? 

As for the schedule, the event kicks off on Sunday at Glasgow’s Scottish Event Campus with a procedural opening of negotiation. Next comes a two-day summit, inviting heads of state to put forward their proposals for meeting net zero targets. From Wednesday onwards, each day will focus on a different theme – including a day on transport, one on finance, another on adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability to climate-related impacts.

Some days will focus on slightly more abstract themes such as gender, exploring how to achieve meaningful participation of women in climate action. On the final day, Friday 12 November, each country will be required to sign some form of declaration. 

It adds up to a fortnight-long merry-go-round of speeches, meetings and furrowed-brow head-nodding. But what are the chances of anything meaningful being agreed?

For progress to be made, a string of disagreements will have to be overcome, not least between developed and developing countries.  

The G20 nations account for approximately 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet many of the least polluting countries are experiencing the worst effects of rising temperatures. In 2009, wealthy countries pledged $100bn a year in climate finance to help poorer nations by 2020. But this goal hasn’t been met and is unlikely to be until 2023. 

One thorny issue will be compensation for poorer countries. Developing nations want a significant package over the next five years, not only to help them divert from coal but also to help them cope with the impact of climate change – for instance, funding to build flood defence systems. See Tim Marshall tackles this topic in his latest column.

All eyes will also be on China – the world’s biggest polluter – which has investments in coal all around the globe. Meeting targets without cooperation from the superpower will be pretty much impossible. China has not made an updated pledge on reductions in emissions and says it can only reach carbon neutral by 2060. And China is yet to join the methane pact – to cut methane emissions by at least 30 percent by 2030. 

Rows and wrangling are almost inevitable. Getting nearly 200 countries to agree on anything is no small task. Boris Johnson has already watered down expectations of success by admitting that it is “touch and go” whether key COP goals will be met. But he might have a bigger headache: getting the dignitaries in and out of Glasgow without the city going into gridlock or the special EVs ferrying them around from running out fuel could turn out to be an even greater challenge.