Government defeated on no deal as general election looks ever more likely
In a major show of strength today, an anti-no deal coalition of MPs inflicted a heavier than expected defeat on the government. The government lost by 41 votes (315 to 273) in its attempt to take an anti-prorogation amendment out of the Northern Ireland bill. The significance of the loss was largely symbolic, with the vote essentially a proxy on whether the Commons will accept a no deal Brexit. The scale of the defeat is a timely reminder of how difficult the next Prime Minister would find it to push through no deal against parliament’s will.
The amendment means that proroguing parliament in the autumn to stop MPs blocking no-deal is now probably not an option for Boris Johnson. If parliament was prorogued or in this time it would have to be recalled in order to discuss reports tabled under the Northern Ireland Executive Act, but motions tabled would be unamendable.
For all its significance, the amendment does not prevent a no deal Brexit. The legal default remains that the UK’s EU membership expires on 31st October. If Johnson was absolutely determined to take us out of the EU with no deal, MPs would theoretically not be able to prevent it. As an Institute for Government report said, under the current rules it would be “almost impossible” for MPs to stop a no-deal.
So, although anti-no deal MPs will be pleased to have made the prorogation method of achieving a no deal Brexit a lot more difficult, they still need to change the legal default to be certain of avoiding it. To do this they will need to force the government to seek an extension via primary legislation. Alternatively, Tory rebels could vote against their own government in a vote of no confidence should Jeremy Corbyn request one. Although this doesn’t compel Prime Minister Boris Johnson from extending the Brexit deadline for the election, the general consensus is he probably would.
What was going through Boris’ mind today, as he sat one row in front of the Tory rebels? He must know that he will face major resistance if he attempts to go for no deal. In an interview with the BBC Margot James, who resigned as a culture minister so she could vote against the government, said “quite a number” of ministers would leave the government to join a campaign to block a no-deal Brexit:
‘If we do end up with Boris as our Prime Minister,” she said, “then I think quite a number of people who would have always been voting with the government will leave the government and will be doing everything they can with myself and others to make sure we leave with a deal, or we carry on negotiating or we look for another outcome.’
Some 17 Conservative MPs voted against the government today. Five ministers abstained, apparently deliberately, and they will soon be on the backbenches. When Johnson picks his Cabinet, he will almost certainly sack more ministers who will then join the growing anti-no deal coalition. After the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election the government’s working majority is likely to drop to just three. Boris is going to start his premiership in a very weak and vulnerable position, not the best foundation for implementing controversial policy.
A general election is looking more likely by the day. Obviously, Johnson wants to avoid an election before delivering Brexit, but he may not have the luxury of choice. On balance, his best option remains attempting to gain some compromises on the backstop and finally delivering a managed Brexit before gearing up for an election in which the Brexit Party is no longer a concern. This might not be achievable either, but he’s guaranteed to be walking into a major battle straight away if he opts to go straight for no deal. If he loses that battle, he faces a very difficult and highly unpredictable general election.