Hallelujah! Vaccine in prospect

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You’ve probably seen the good news: preliminary results from the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine candidate suggest that it is 90 per cent effective at protecting people against coronavirus, according to a press release from Pfizer.

Markets have surged on the announcement, with the UK’s FTSE 100 gaining over £70billion – its best rally since March. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average have both hit record highs, jumping by 3.6 per cent and 5.3 per cent respectively.

While the data has yet to be peer-reviewed, these numbers suggest the vaccine – and indeed other vaccine projects – have a much better performance against the virus than most experts had predicted. It raises the prospect of immunising the most vulnerable people by summer 2021, with US and European regulatory approval expected in the coming month or two.

If it is approved, the UK government has already pre-ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, enough for about a third of the population since each person needs two doses. Britain’s pre-order is in the top three largest in the world on a per-capita basis.

Boris Johnson today told a press conference: “If the Pfizer vaccine passes all the rigorous safety checks and is proved to be effective, then we will begin a UK-wide NHS-led programme of vaccine distribution. We will decide the order in which people are offered the vaccination, taking account of recommendations from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.”

However, the Prime Minister warned: “It is crucial that we do not overdo it. We cannot let our enthusiasm tonight run away with us, folks. I’m very sorry to say this, it’s more vital than ever now that we follow the basics, that we wait and see whether this vaccine lives up to its promise.”

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam added: “Frankly, we are in the middle of a second wave, and I don’t see the vaccine making any difference for the wave we are now in… this one we have to battle through to the end, without a vaccine. We have to keep pressing hard for now. We’ve seen the swallow but this is very much not the summer. Please don’t relax.”

The world awaits a full set of data from Pfizer, due to be published in the coming days. AstraZeneca is also expected to assess and publish its results in the coming weeks, with the British company hoping for regulatory approval before the new year.

Sunak on the post-Brexit City

The Chancellor has unilaterally set out a post-Brexit UK financial services framework despite continuing negotiations with the EU, saying he’s waited long enough for Brussels to decide on access to its markets.

“Of course we will always want a constructive and engaged relationship with the European Union,” Sunak told the Commons, “but after four years, I think it is time for us to move forward as a country and do what’s right for the UK to provide certainty and stability to industry and deliver our goal of open, well-regulated markets.”

Sunak outlined a set of equivalence decisions for EU and EEA member states, keeping current regulations in place and reassuring those who feared a post-Brexit race to the bottom in financial services regulations. The Treasury will be open to expanding equivalence packages should the EU engage in negotiations. “Others might wish to use equivalence as a political weapon, that won’t be our approach,” Sunak added.

While the Chancellor is also looking to expand the City’s international reach, today’s announcement suggests he’s prioritising stability and predictability over any radical overhaul.

Critical week in Brexit talks 

Brexit negotiations continue in London this week as both sides vow to “redouble efforts” to tackle their “significant differences”, with fishing rights and the level playing field remaining the key sticking points. There are around ten days left to secure a free trade deal in time for it to be ratified by the EU member states.

Michel Barnier today tweeted that there were three keys to unlock a deal:

“No 1: Respect for EU autonomy and UK sovereignty, with effective governance and enforcement mechanisms between international partners. No 2: Robust guarantees of free and fair trade and competition based on shared high standards, evolving coherently over time. No 3: Stable and reciprocal access to markets and fishing opportunities in the interests of both parties.”

If negotiations falter this week, expect a mad-dash over the weekend and into next week as both sides desperately attempt to avoid carnage in January. This really is the crunch point.

Mutaz Ahmed
Political Reporter