Has a quarter of the UK’s GDP just disappeared? No
If you could bottle the excitement of the biggest ultra-remainers on social media when they read Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s latest piece in the Telegraph then you would have a heady brew on your hands.
The Telegraph business splash was headlined “Britain’s missing billions: Revised figures reveal UK is £490n poorer than previously thought.”
This sounds sub-optimal, to put it politely. Terrifying even. What’s going on?
AEP reports:
“Global banks and bond strategists have been left stunned by revised ONS figures.”
Britain, he says, “no longer has any reserve of net foreign assets, depriving the country of its safety margin as Brexit talks reach a crucial juncture. A massive write-down in the UK balance of payments data shows that Britain’s stock of wealth – the net international investment position – has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn. This transforms the outlook for sterling and the gilts markets.”
A bond expert is then wheeled on: “Half a trillion pounds has gone missing. This is equivalent to 25pc of GDP,” said Mark Capleton, of Bank of America.
This revelation spread across social media rapidly. The tweets flowed fast. Can’t believe this isn’t leading the 8am news! OMG. MSM so biased ignoring this bomb going off under UK. British economy 25% smaller than thought! May, Hammond, Boris, Gove, they’ll all have to reign by lunchtime! Have you heard? Britain is, like, so f… f… finished, stop the Brexit madness! And so on…
Let’s put to one side the question of why gleeful ultra-remainers love bad news about Britain, and ask what is really going on.
Simon French, chief economist of Panmure Gordon, was the first to express reservations about the brewing media storm, saying the framing of the report was a classic example of the danger of misinterpreting balance sheet headlines.
In essence, apples are being compared to oranges. The movement or readjustment relates to the country’s epic assets and liabilities, and flows of investment. Equating that movement to something entirely different GDP – Gross Domestic Product, annual economic output – tells you very little.
“The UK economy has assets and liabilities totalling over £21trillion,” says French. “Therefore a revision of £490 billion (or 2.3%) is both modest and understandable given recent large swings in the UK’s exchange rate and asset prices. Data on assets and liabilities shouldn’t be directly compared with spending figures such as GDP. Stepping back, the data actually shows the UK now has its most healthy net investment balance since 2008”.
Another economist says the difference between balance sheet items and those on an income statement is usually taught in foundation level accountancy classes.
There are some genuine concerns on the levels of FDI, Foreign Direct Investment. The last two quarters have been weak, although as French says the figures are volatile. The numbers are “lumpy” and prone to being skewed by a large single investment or two in any quarter.
Of course, all is far from perfect in the British economy. Growth is sluggish and Brexit could be tough. But if anyone tells you that, OMG, a quarter of UK GDP just disappeared, tell them no it didn’t.