Has Ukraine’s incursion backfired?

Bucking the trend of recent days, Ukraine is once again the country issuing evacuation orders, as the Russian army closes in on Pokrovsk – a city that has been one of its key targets for months.

Today’s development draws attention to the high-stakes gamble Zelensky has made by diverting troops from Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region to launch his daring invasion into Russia.

Residents of Pokrovsk have been urged to flee without delay, amid warnings that Russian troops are “rapidly approaching the outskirts of [the city]”.

In recent weeks, Moscow’s forces have inched closer to Pokrovsk, capturing a string of nearby small villages, and earlier today, seizing Serhiivka, a village just 9 miles away. 

Pokrovsk is a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region and one of Ukraine’s main defensive strongholds. It sits on the intersection of a main road that supplies Ukrainian troops and towns across the eastern front, meaning gaining control of this city would bring Moscow closer to capturing the Donetsk region than ever before.

This development explains why some military analysts consider Kyiv’s cross-border incursion such a risky strategy. Zelensky has moved at least six of his most experienced brigades along with some special forces units further north to carry out the Kursk incursion, inevitably rendering defences in eastern Ukraine weaker. And defence is badly needed in the Donetsk, an area where Russia has been making steady advances for months. 

Of course, Kyiv would have been under no illusion about the dangers involved. So why risk it? 

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior aide to the Ukrainian president, provided some further clarity today on Zelensky’s objective. 

“Ukraine is not interested in occupying Russian territories,” insisted Podolyak. Rather, Kyiv is demonstrating it is capable of seizing Russian territory “to persuade [Moscow] to enter a fair negotiation process”. 

In other words, Zelensky is thinking ahead and hoping to reshape the terms of an eventual peace settlement.

Aside from raising Ukrainian morale, and humiliating Putin, Podolyak also expressed hope that bringing the war home to Russians could shift local attitudes towards the war: “Negative changes in the psychological state of the Russian population will be another argument for the start of negotiations,” he added.  

As Tim Marshall writes in Reaction today, “Until last week, Kyiv could not say to Moscow any variation of ‘Kursk for Donbass’.”

Being able to do so certainly gives Ukraine more leverage at the negotiating table. Though whether or not such a proposition will soon be redundant is difficult to say. 

Zelensky is hoping Ukrainians can cling onto Kursk without sacrificing the Donetsk. Putin, meanwhile, seems to think he can contain the incursion without easing pressure on Ukrainians in the east. 

Both men are making a gamble. Though Russia has the undeniable advantage of far greater manpower. 

That said, Kyiv’s bold new military offensive has certainly helped Zelensky to realise at least one of his long-term aims; activity in Kursk has got us all talking about Ukraine again. The west has been aroused from its war fatigue.

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