Heavy weather: both Sunak and Starmer are getting hot under the collar
The UK is set to miss out on the “hottest ever” heat wave in continental Europe this week but the metaphorical temperature at Westminster has further to rise in the final few days of political action before the summer recess.
Both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are heading into a week of strife which is unlikely to leave either of them, or their “troops” in the Commons, feeling better off when it is over. Sunak is in particularly deep water as even more Conservative MPs are behaving like the proverbial frogs and surrendering to their fate. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, is the latest of some forty-plus colleagues to announce his intention of jumping out of the pan before he’s boiled.
The week kicks off with late nights of ping pong in both chambers tonight and tomorrow as the government struggles to complete passage of the unloved and unlovely Illegal Migration Bill, along with the stable door-bolting Strikes (Minimum Services) Bill. On Wednesday, latest statistics are set to confirm that the UK has the highest inflation rate of the G7 countries. (That’s why ministers have taken to comparing our performance to the G20).
Then on Thursday, there are three by-elections – in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome in response to which both Sunak and the leader of the opposition are expected to start “freshening” up their front bench teams.
The veteran psephologist Professor Michael Thrasher notes that “Rishi Sunak is the first Conservative Prime Minister in the modern era to defend three parliamentary by-elections on the same day”. This triple challenge has only befallen to one Prime Minister since 1945. That was Labour’s Harold Wilson who lost all three in March 1968 to swings of between 15 and 21 percent. Wilson went on to lose unexpectedly to Ted Heath in the subsequent general election in 1970.
Labour currently average a lead of around 19 points in national opinion polls which suggests that victories should be well within their reach – an expectation reinforced by the, often unreliable, local surveys during these campaigns. Uxbridge, Boris Johnson’s old seat in London, is ranked 91st on Labour’s target list, and would fall to a swing of 7.5% or more.
Ainsty, vacated in North Yorkshire by Johnson fanboy Nigel Adams over an aborted peerage, is a tougher target – 225th Labour target, requiring a 17.9% swing. It has never been out of Tory hands. But Labour has high hopes in this Leave-voting constituency for its 25 year old candidate, who shares his first name Keir, with the current leader and the founder of the party.
David Heath held the seat of Somerton & Frome for the Liberal Democrats from 1997 until 2015 when it reverted to the Conservatives. It is now 53rd on the LibDem target list. The required swing of 14.8 is small compared to the 25.1% and 34.2 % swings from the Tories this parliament which handed the prizes of Chesham & Amersham and North Shropshire, respectively, to the Liberal Democrats this parliament.
The general expectation then is that the Conservatives will lose all three. If Labour does not win in both its targets, Starmer’s boast that he is on course for a parliamentary majority will look shaky. A simultaneous gain in Somerset for the Lib Dems would re-activate unwelcome speculation about coalitions. Neither opposition party wants to talk about hung parliaments although the uncomfortable reality for them is that the LibDems do well when Labour is doing well, because that indicates the Tories are in the dumps.
Should non-baroness Nadine Dorries ever deliver on her promise to resign her seat to create further difficulties for Sunak’s Conservatives, Bedfordshire Mid will be a fascinating laboratory for Labour-Lib Dem relations. Labour was in second place in 2019 and has already dispatched its most New Labour star Peter Kyle to set up its campaign. The LibDem leader Sir Ed Davey has also become a frequent visitor, believing it smells like a by-election win for his party.
Double victory in London and Yorkshire might at least quieten those in Labour uninspired by the Starmer’s leadership. The cost of living crisis may be everybody’s top concern but it is evident to all that the iron-discipline being enforced over spending plans by Rachel Reeves will not go far to alleviate it.
Labour spokespeople spend their time bemoaning all aspects of “Broken Britain” but when asked what a Labour government would do about it, Reeves’ flinty response is to demand to know what spending pledges have been made – beyond those to be paid for by taxes on non-doms and private schools.
Starmer’s latest hard choice for his party is to pledge to continue the two-child cap on child benefit payments, formerly described as “heinous” by shadow DWP secretary Jonathan Ashworth and “obscene and inhumane” by deputy leader Angela Rayner.
Meanwhile, the public rehabilitation of former leader Tony Blair will continue with his “Future of Britain Conference” this week. Blair commends Reeves for “restoring economic credibility” and admits coming into government “was a lot easier for us” in 1997. The contrast is unavoidable between the former leader’s continuing inspirational boldness and the dour Reeves and Starmer.
Starmer’s tribulations are still nothing compared to those of Rishi Sunak. The biggest threat to the Tories in the by-elections is that their voters do not turn out. The Prime Minister’s problem is that those in the Conservative family who like him do not support his policies, and those on the right who support his policies do not like him. One Nation Conservatives mutter respect for Sunak’s “decency” while decrying his stress on “stop the boats”, spurning the EU, and Gradgrindian tropes such as his latest clampdown on non-vocational university courses.
Tory right wingers never voted for Sunak to become leader and do not trust him or his economic sobriety. Should the Conservatives manage to hang on to either Johnson or Adams’ seat – the cry will go up that it was a victory for Boris Johnsonism, anti-environmentalism and tax cuts now. Although most marginal, Uxbridge looks like the most likely possible “hold” because of the unpopularity of the ULEZ extension put forward by the Labour Mayor of London.
Ten years ago the cross party Political and Constitutional Reform Committee warned: “There should always be a good reason for a reshuffle. No reshuffle should ever take place simply because it is assumed that there should be one.” Yet that is the plight in which both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition find themselves this week. They will be reshuffling this summer because they can but from a position of weakness – making changes only to preserve their grip and balance other powers within their party.
There is no good reason why Sunak should delay his reshuffle for six weeks of silly season speculation until September, running uncomfortably close to the party conference. Yet that is the briefing on his intentions. The speculated changes would not strengthen the performance of his government. Moving James Cleverly to Defence would be a technical demotion and unsettle a Foreign Office still recuperating from the trauma of leadership under Johnson and Truss. Anne Marie Trevelyan has the qualifications for Foreign Secretary but she may be too independent-minded for Sunak’s liking. Penny Mordaunt has done Defence before but is probably too popular for Sunak to risk promoting her.
Touring pop stars have gazumped Labour’s five year long block booking for conferences in Liverpool. Unusually the party conference won’t take place until mid-October after the Conservatives. Starmer could take his time and respond to the Tory reshuffle, especially since shadow cabinet briefs are currently out of sync with reality in Westminster.
Regardless, he is expected to make his changes first – staff already claim they know who they are getting. Once he tried to demote Angela Rayner, now she is set for a prominent department of her own, John Prescott style, with the “Levelling Up Brief”. It is unclear what roles he will find for Lisa Nandy, Yvette Cooper and Bridget Phillipson who have all been kept under Reeves’ thumb until now.
Storms, heatwaves, droughts and dog days: the Great British Public just have to put up with whatever weather comes their way. When it comes to the political weather, the voters are the ones looking for answers and shaping the way ahead, not our political leaders who seem to have little to offer.
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