That’s what I get for deciding to wait for the full 48 letters to be lodged with the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee before finalising my weekly newsletter to Reaction subscribers. Apologies to subscribers for the delay – not in the delivery of the 48 letters, that’s nothing to do with me. Apologies instead for the slow delivery of my newsletter, caused by the situation getting by the hour more, not less, complicated. I will now do my best on your behalf to calmly make sense of where I think we are.

For this edition of the newsletter let’s go with the Q&A format, rather than an essay, in the interests of simplicity and (potential) clarity.

Will May face a leadership vote of confidence?

Yep, it looks like it. At the time of writing, the Tory rebels are short despite weeks, months of briefing that they were almost there or need only snap their fingers to get well beyond the 48 letters they must have to trigger a vote of confidence on the Tory leader.