Hezbollah chief’s speech leaves IDF on high alert

The Israeli military has said it is on high alert on the northern border with Lebanon after Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s first speech since the start of the war.

Appearing on screens in public squares across Lebanon, Iraq and Iran, Nasrallah – who never appears in public for fear of assassination – praised what he termed a “sacred operation” by Hamas on 7 October. He warned that Israel would be foolish to mount an attack on the northern border: “If the enemy starts to attack any Lebanon area they would make the hugest, the stupidest mistake.”

On potential US involvement and in response to the fact that American aircraft carriers and warships have moved into the Eastern Mediterranean to support Israel, Nasrallah said Hezbollah was well prepared and not threatened by America. “We even have weapons to deal with them,” he added. 

He claimed the US is to blame for what is happening in Gaza: “The United States is against a ceasefire, against everything.”

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv this morning and gave a press conference. Blinken pledged continued American support but spoke explicitly about the importance of “how” Israel goes about its mission in Gaza. 

Blinken explicitly spoke of the pain and suffering of Gazans under extreme aerial bombardment, which the Hamas-run authorities claim has killed over 9,000 and injured 23,000. On seeing children being pulled from the rubble with injuries, he said: “When I see that, when I look into their eyes through the TV screen, I see my own children. How can we not?”

“We have provided Israel advice that only the best of friends can offer, on how to minimise civilian deaths while still achieving its objectives of finding and finishing Hamas terrorists.”

The US is still calling for humanitarian pauses which the UN defines as a “temporary cessation of hostilities” so that humanitarian aid can be delivered. Unlike a ceasefire, it is rarely the first step in a diplomatic or political resolution and is far shorter, even lasting just hours to let aid into the country. 

Since humanitarian pauses do not have the political weight of ceasefires, they are even more precarious to arrange. Where a ceasefire is more clearly defined, as a precursor to diplomacy and a potential settlement, humanitarian pauses take place with the full intention of returning to warfare. 

Blinken also accepted that having Hamas as an enemy makes humanitarian pauses more difficult given the Islamists’ use of human shields and their disregard for the Gazan civilian population. 

In response to Nasrallah, Netanyahu gave a retaliatory warning: “I tell our enemies to the north don’t test us, you will pay dearly.”

Reaction columnist Tim Marshall told Sky News that Lebanon is trying to “raise the stakes” but is not yet explicitly interested in serious escalation: “The final gear for them is that they have 150,000 rockets, several hundred of them at least are guided munitions, meaning they can reach anywhere in Israel. So they could be targeting the major cities and towns with guided munitions.”

“That’s the top escalation that without doubt would bring in an Israel-Lebanon war.”

Elsewhere, it has been confirmed that Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf’s in-laws have made it safely out of Gaza into Egypt via the briefly opened Rafah crossing after four weeks of “living hell”.

Despite confirmation that seven Israeli soldiers have been killed on the Lebanon border, Gaza is still the top priority for Israel. IDF spokesperson Daniel Haggari said yesterday that Israeli troops completed the encirclement of Gaza City, the focal point of the Hamas terror organisation. But make no mistake, Nasrallah’s broken silence adds another layer of complexity to an already intractable problem and raises the risks of escalation. 

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