Historic week, Boris needs a deal…

This historic week at Westminster kicked off with the Queen’s Speech this morning. The purpose of the speech is to outline the government’s legislative intentions for the next session of parliament. But since Boris Johnson has no parliamentary majority to pass legislation, in that respect it was largely cosmetic. It was instead a precursor to a Conservative manifesto for the election the Tories hope is coming soon.

Based on the Speech, we can assume the Conservative Party will run on a platform of being tough on crime (they announced proposals to increase sentences for certain violent crimes, for example); big on spending (more money for schools and the NHS, but little policy detail beyond that); and pro increasing the UK’s environmental commitments.

When it comes to Brexit, the speech majored on the government’s plans to end free movement. And it announced a financial services bill to keep the City open to international markets post the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

Jeremy Corbyn condemned the entire programme, calling it a “farce” and saying he will pursue an election as soon as the imminent threat of a no deal Brexit is eliminated. He added:

“There has never been such a farce as a government with a majority of minus 45 and a 100% record of defeat in the Commons setting out a legislative agenda they know cannot be delivered in this parliament.”

Meanwhile over on the congenital mainland, where the real action is this week, leaders are raising doubts that a deal can be struck by the EU Summit (and nominal deadline) at the end of this week. Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister and deputy to Leo Varadkar, indicated the UK needs to move further to facilitate a deal, and later added: “It’s too early to say whether it’s possible to get a breakthrough this week whether it’ll move into next week.”

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said the “technical” talks from over the weekend were constructive, but that a lot of work needs doing.

It appears the UK has dropped its demand that the deal should offer Stormont a role in approving the withdrawal arrangements, handing a de facto veto to the DUP. While that concession makes the proposals more palatable to Dublin, it is politically difficult for Boris Johnson back at home, who will likely lose the support of the 12 DUP MPs in parliament.

But, the DUP are unhappy with most of the terms of the proposals – and Johnson may do better trying to win over more Labour rebels to his side, rather than pacify the DUP whose demands are unacceptable to all others around the negotiating table. DUP MP Jim Shannon said the proposed customs solution would not work because it would treat Northern Ireland differently to Britain: “It is simple. Are we being treated the same as England? No, we are not. Therefore, if we are not being treated the same as England, then we are not going to accept it.”

If Boris Johnson can’t strike a deal with the EU by the weekend, he will come under strong pressure to seek a Brexit extension, as he is mandated to by the Benn Act. But extending Article 50 beyond 31st October is something he has repeatedly promised he would’t do. Exactly how Johnson will square that circle is unclear.

Either way, if the EU and the UK negotiating teams manage to coalesce around some kind of arrangement, it will still come down to the wire both in getting it through parliament and passing the necessary legislation in time before the 31st October.

Parliament will sit this Saturday for the first time since the Falklands War in 1982, when all of this should come to a head. The noises coming out of Brussels seem to indicate Johnson most likely won’t have a deal by then – if that’s the case expect MPs to demand he seeks an extension and complies its the law. There is renewed talk of second referendums, and possibly even the no confidence vote Johnson has been waiting for.

What he needs to avoid all that is a deal.