How was Israel caught so off guard?

How on earth did Israel – with one of the world’s best intelligence services and the Middle East’s most powerful army – not see it coming? As the country comes to terms with its equivalent of 9/11, with hundreds of lives lost and hostages taken, that question is dominating the discussion.

This was the worst breach of Israel’s defences since its Arab neighbours attacked Israel in 1973. The IDF has conceded it was caught off guard: “They surprised us and they came fast from many spots – both from the air and the ground and the sea,” said Major Nir Dinar, spokesperson for the Israeli military. 

This was a startlingly well-planned, land, sea and air attack from Hamas and unprecedented in its intensity too. On Saturday, it fired more than 2,500 rockets into Israel, almost quadruple the previous single-day record of 670 rockets fired in 2021, according to the IDF.

According to a source close to Hamas, who spoke to Reuters, Hamas even constructed a mock Israeli settlement in Gaza where they practiced a military landing, trained to storm it and made videos of the manoeuvres.

How did it manage to keep its military plans completely under wraps? 

It seems Hamas sought to convince Israel that it was not ready for a military adventure and succeeded in building a false impression that it had economic concerns, not a new war, on its mind. It faced criticism from its supporters for its apparent inaction and intentionally restrained from military operations over the past two years as part of its subterfuge.

As Limor Simhony Philpott, a former research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, pointed out in the Spectator, Netanyahu’s government has been distracted by its attempts to force through unpopular judicial reforms – and the resulting internal conflict within Israeli society which has ensued. “This stole attention away from the worsening security situation in Gaza, the West Bank and the border with Lebanon,” says Philpott. 

Hamas’s thirst for blood has cost many Israeli citizens their lives. In the coming days and weeks, as Netanyahu embarks on his quest for vengeance, Palestinians civilians in the Gaza strip will pay a devastating price too.

“We are fighting savages, and we will act accordingly,” declared Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defence minister, today as he ordered a “complete siege” of Gaza in response to Hamas’s attack. 

The Israeli government – which has mobilised 300,000 reservists in 48 hours – is intent on trying to destroy Hamas. Israeli air strikes have already killed at least 600 Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip since Saturday and there is almost certainly much more bloodshed to come. “The enemy will pay an unprecedented price,” warned Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today. 

While Netanyahu is putting on a display of strength, his authority may turn out to have been severely undermined because Israel under his leadership was caught out.

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