In the name of God, go!
What a day. The words of Sir Lyndsay Hoyle, caught on a microphone as Prime Minister’s Questions concluded, summed it up.
In a brutal Commons session for Boris Johnson, David Davis, the respected Tory grandee and former Brexit minister, banjaxed the PM with a call for his resignation, quoting Leo Amery to Neville Chamberlain in 1940: “You have sat there too long for all the good you have done. In the name of God, go.” The chamber erupted. Johnson was visibly stunned.
It was an electrifying end to a rowdy PMQs in which Johnson soaked up yet more flack for the partygate scandal from a rejuvenated Sir Keir Starmer and a succession of opposition MPs.
The tone was set even before the session began, as Christian Wakeford, the Tory MP for Bury South, defected from the Conservatives, crossing the floor to join Labour ranks. It was a huge moment – the first Tory defection to Labour in 15 years.
Where does all this leave the PM?
There are conflicting reports about the effect Wakeford’s defection has had on the party, with some sources claiming the betrayal has galvanised MPs behind the PM, who reportedly broke down in tears in a meeting with wavering backbenchers yesterday. No 10 denies this.
But there’s a relentless logic lurking behind Johnson’s haemorrhaging of popularity. The latest polling shows the Conservatives trailing Labour by 11 points, which would mean the Tories losing all but three of their 45 Red Wall seats if an election were held tomorrow.
As former No10 Chief of Staff, Gavin Barwell, points out, the key argument Johnson allies use to defend him is that he is best placed to hold these vital seats.
And while Davis’s intervention isn’t the final nail in the coffin for the PM, it’s a sign that various factions of the Tory party are completely fed up, not just the 2019 cohort of MPs, whose meetings in recent days have been dubbed the “pork pie putsch”.
The big question is whether (or when) 54 letters of no confidence will be sent to Graham Brady, the magic number that would trigger a no-confidence vote. Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, is notoriously tight-lipped about his post bag, although we know at least four Tory MPs have sent letters and three more have publicly called for Johnson to resign. Some will be waiting until the result of Sue Gray’s inquiry, expected next week, which has assumed near-mythical status.
If the threshold is reached, the PM will be ousted if a simple majority of the (now) 359 Tory MPs vote against him. Johnson wouldn’t be allowed to stand in the subsequent leadership contest in which the field would be whittled down to two, with the final decision being left to party members.
Even if he wins the vote, it may just be a stay of execution. Theresa May survived one in 2018. She was gone within a year.
From the opposition’s perspective, despite the cacophony of calls for the PM to go, Starmer will be wanting Johnson to win any confidence vote. With Tory popularity plummeting, the longer he clings on the better.