Iran at war with… Pakistan

Tehran is reeling from the first external land attack on its soil since forces led by Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980s, kickstarting an eight-year war.

But – in something of a plot twist – the attack was not launched by Israel, or indeed the US, but a country with whom Iran has enjoyed fairly cordial relations: Pakistan. 

Pakistan launched a deadly set of missile strikes into Iran’s border this morning in a purported attempt to hit the Baloch Liberation Front militant group in a “terrorist hideout..in pursuit of Pakistan’s own security and national interest.”

Tehran has condemned the attacks, which killed nine people, and has summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat to “request an explanation”.

Islamabad says the attack was in direct response to a drone strike on Pakistani soil, launched by Iran just two days earlier, in which Tehran says it was targeting an Iranian militant group based there.

Both attacks took place in Balochistan, a rural province divided between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, often described as “lawless”, where major drug-smuggling gangs – responsible for thousands of killings – operate. 

Militant insurgency in the region is a long-running source of tension between Pakistan and its neighbour Iran, with both accusing the other of harbouring separatist terrorists. 

This diplomatic flare-up will only add to regional instability in the Middle East. 

Indeed, it is becoming difficult to keep track of all of the cross-border missile strikes launched in recent weeks. So far this month, Israel, Hamas, the US, UK, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Pakistan have all either fired missiles and drones or been struck by them.

However, while Tehran – as the sponsor for Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah – is very much involved in the Israel/Hamas war, the only direct attacks it has launched since 7 October have in fact been related to other conflicts. 

The targets of its direct missile strikes since 7 October have been the Islamic State group in Syria – in response to the group’s deadly suicide bombings at a memorial for slain Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani – and now, Baluchi separatists inside Pakistan. 

Iran insists its strikes on Tuesday were aimed only at Jaish al-Adl – an ethnic Baloch Sunni Muslim group that has carried out attacks inside Iran – and not at Pakistan’s citizens. 

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former UN representative, said today that Pakistanis were “baffled” by Iran’s attack on Tuesday because “over the years, relations have improved and the two countries were engaged in joint military exercises”.

Islamabad’s retaliation, she added, was a way for it to “send a signal to Tehran that it cannot violate Pakistan’s border”.

Pakistan’s domestic political turmoil may have also spurred it on to launch the attack – with the country’s caretaker Prime Minister, Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, keen to take decisive action and appear strong.

But what do these respective strikes mean for Pakistani-Iranian relations longer-term? And can expect this week’s tensions to escalate? 

The fact that both countries have been so explicit that they were only targeting militant groups operating from the other’s territory – and not the other countries’ own citizens – does create the space for a climb down. 

Lt Gen Asif Yaseen, a former Pakistani secretary of defence, told the BBC that Tehran’s swift summoning of Islamabad’s top diplomat also suggests that Iran does not want further escalation. 

The attacks, he predicted, “will stop here for both countries” once Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has spoken to his Pakistani counterpart.

Nonetheless, the mutual strikes heighten tensions in a region contending with some large and seemingly intractable problems.

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