Iran cannot be allowed to win

This is Iain Martin’s final subscriber newsletter of 2023

If at the start of this year you had the Bab el-Mandeb strait on your bingo card as one of the main geopolitical stress points of late 2023, then well done, not many people did.

The attacks on shipping by the Islamist Houthis, from northern Yemen, are shutting down a vital shipping lane. Ostensibly this is being done in support of the Palestinians and Hamas.

It will have an impact on trade and the global economy as major shipping firms have announced it is too dangerous to go through Bab el-Mandeb. “Going round (Africa) adds three or four weeks to the journey,” says a shipping executive, “and it increases the costs of shipping by four, five, six times. A lot of money will be made by the biggest names in the industry.”

A task force of allies led by the US is attempting to combat the threat, to ensure the shipping lane can stay open, but it is not easy when established forces are facing next generation warfare that rests on terrorist groups using drones and small boats, orchestrated by Iran.

Generally, a year ago the wider Middle East was viewed as being becalmed and the narrow waterway off the western coast of Yemen got little attention.

The reality was always much more complicated, and threatening, as countries such as Bahrain can atest. The latest attacks are part of a longer term and constant campaign of aggression by Iran and Iranian proxies both in and around Bab el-Mandeb on the trade route leading up to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and 1100 miles away in the Strait of Hormuz, the route into the Persian Gulf where Bahrain sits between its ally and giant neighbour Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Iran to the north.

The common feature in both straits is the US Fifth Fleet, based in Manama, Bahrain, from where it covers the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and some of the Indian Ocean. Britain is also there, with a  smaller base in Bahrain.

The threat to shipping and trade proves the practical importance of the US and Britain having proper allies in the region, and Bahrain is one of Britain’s longest standing allies. The country was, in effect, a British protectorate on defence and foreign affairs until the early 1970s, and the two governments are very close.

Bahrain is right on the frontline against Iran and its government has warned consistently about Iranian activities. During conversations on a visit to the Gulf state last month, for the IISS Manama Dialogue which draws together policymakers and commentators, the evolving drone warfare threat was a constant theme.

“Everything has been changed by the threat of drones and drone warfare,” says a Bahrain naval source. “Drones are the biggest challenge we’re facing.”

“Sometimes the Iranians use drones to look for the most valuable ships. They’re hunting for GPS and valuable kit to steal,” he adds.

It’s piracy, but for the Iranians there is also a geopolitical angle. Menacing shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz keeps the US and Britain busy and guessing on what’s coming next in terms of attacks.

Combined with the terrorism taking place off the coast of Yemen, conducted by the Iranian-backed Houthis, it is a recipe designed to stretch the allies and induce angst. Classic behaviour from an Iranian regime that wants to weaken its opponents, by piracy and fighting proxy wars rather than inducing an all-out direct conflict it would lose.

The US, UK and Bahrain are working to establish early warning systems, looking at new approaches and technology.

This is only going to become a more serious challenge, and the Bahrain view that it will require relentless, consistent attention is surely right. Short of an internal change of regime in Iran, which looks unlikely, the threat will grow. China, Russia and Iran are already sharing technology and in March this year they ran joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman.

As China, Russia and Iran increase their coordination, the West in contrast is contemplating the prospect of a disastrous American tilt towards isolation with Donald Trump looking like the winner in next year’s election.

The danger is most acute in Ukraine, where under pressure Kyiv is having to plan its campaign of resistance not knowing whether enough aid will be forthcoming from the US and Europe. But if America goes isolationist, it won’t just impact on Ukraine. It will be asked in a Trump-run US why the nation’s forces should expend any resources abroad, especially in a Middle East which has not been a happy hunting ground for the US in the last quarter of a century.

So what – it will be said – if the Europeans and Middle Eastern states have their trade disrupted by Iran? The US is fine for energy, just get the Europeans and the Middle Eastern oil states to sort out their own problems. What could possibly go wrong? This is the dangerous territory into which Trumpian American politics risks taking us.

America is the essential power and its heft is needed to keep trade flowing, to showcase that international rules mean something and to protect its allies. We’ll be in even deeper trouble if Iran, a state sponsoring terrorism and helping Russia, is allowed to win by default.

Remembering Alistair Darling

To Edinburgh on Tuesday and the service of thanksgiving for the life of Alistair Darling, gone way too soon. He was a great man and he was good man, a rare combination. In public life, as Chancellor and then head of the successful campaign to prevent the break-up of Britain during the 2014 Scottish referendum campaign, he was a model of sense, intelligence and civility. In private, he was kind, perceptive and highly amusing company.

The gathering at St Mary’s Cathedral was a reminder that for all the cynicism, division and aggression that is so prevalent, something different and better is possible.

Poor auld Edinburgh

Edinburgh has a valid claim to be one of Europe’s most beautiful cities. Think of the way in which the medieval Old Town links to the Georgian New Town, one of the great Enlightenment projects embodying improvement and a stylish sensibility. In the National Gallery of Scotland the latest new extension, a long gallery devoted to Scottish art, is as good a collection of British pictures as you’ll see anywhere. 

But goodness what a state the main thoroughfare, Princes Street, is in now. This is the long street with buildings on only one side and a breathtaking view up to Edinburgh Castle.

It is in a terrible mess, with many of the shops bust and shuttered. The old, elegant department stores are long gone and boarded up. In the doorways there are tents for the homeless. Shades of San Francisco and intimations of social meltdown.

This is not a problem unique to Edinburgh. Other cities have suffered as the internet has hollowed out retail. In London, the answer has been to go up-market, but perhaps London has so much wealth that it is feasible. Edinburgh has wealth, but it is discreet, and discrete, clustered in the New Town, pockets of the South side and several other areas. George Street, which runs parallel with Princes Street, is the stylish shopping venue. Even so, as it is Christmas there is a giant drinking marquee stuck in the middle.

Edinburgh council’s answer to the city centre’s problems appears to be to licence vulgarity and garish, low-rent commerce that 100 years ago would have had the police called on the grounds of public taste.

In the garden next to the Scott Monument, commemorating Sir Walter Scott, is a “winter market”. These temporary constructions are a modern British curse, a northern European import we get wrong by doing it so shabbily.  Anyone who has had the misfortune to go to “Winter Wonderland” in Hyde Park will know there is nothing wonderful about it.

At least in London they hide the Christmas market horror show in a park. In Edinburgh, they allow it to take over the centre. Above your head, several hundred feet up, people are screaming, being whirled around on a ride at speed. Next to that is a giant, stupid big wheel. Neon day-glo signs and flashing lights are everywhere. It’s like the Robert Burns epic Tam O’Shanter, but on acid. The electric generators whirr and cough while the stalls sell “original German sausage” and Santa hats and tartan tat. Speakers pump out Christmas tunes loudly – “Rahkin’ (Rocking) around the Christmas Tree” and other crimes against music.

No amount of money, surely, can be worth the desecration of these elegant spaces in such a great city?

And another thing… there is the Edinburgh tram. The city, facing economic difficulties, installed a tram system that took 15 years to finish. It cost £1bn. That’s almost £100m per mile. This being contemporary Scotland, run by the SNP, the tram is overmanned, expensive and slow.

I once asked Alistair Darling, Edinburgh resident, what he had learnt as a Cabinet minister. He said that in his time as transport secretary under Tony Blair he had learned a lot about the pitfalls of infrastructure projects.

“Whatever the problem,” he said, “the answer is never a tram.”

Looking forward to 2024

On a happier note, it is time for a break. This newsletter returns in mid-January, though the Reaction team is back before then on 2 January.

Thank you for being a subscriber. I really enjoy writing this newsletter as it is a chance for me to range a bit – in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture – and develop my thinking, informed by smart feedback from you the readers.

As subscribers you are also supporting Reaction’s Young Journalist Programme, training the next generation of journalists. As you know, the team produces a daily briefing every weekday evening, explaining a key story and highlighting the work of our columnists and contributors.

Next year is sure to be interesting, which is a polite way of saying it is going to be absolutely crackers. In the US there is a landmark election contest, though let’s worry about that after Christmas. Britain will almost certainly go to the polls. Although Rishi Sunak has the right to wait until 2025, it’s more likely he’ll hold a general election in either May, June, October or November – not much of a prediction this, is it?

What I’m Watching

Anselm is the new Wim Wenders documentary chronicling the work of German artist Anselm Kiefer. He – Kiefer – is the real deal, a proper genius, the greatest late 20th century and early 21st century visual artist. In comparison, how shallow, silly and insubstantial he makes the work of the 1990s Brit Art movement look.

What else am I watching several times in the next few days? Elf, possibly the greatest of all Christmas films.

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