Writing about Iran and Israel this week risks being overtaken by events. Things often go bump in the night. However, whatever might be happening, amid the seeming chaos of war: both sides have an underlying rationale to their actions.
First, the easier to understand: Israel. Surrounded by enemies, and vastly outnumbered, it has always sought to demonstrate, via superior training and technology, that its armed forces are the most powerful in the region – deterrence through strength. When attacked it quickly switches to deterrence through punishment.
Prior to October 7, confidence was high. Many Arab leaders had given up on what they felt was Palestinian intransigence and had either made, or were preparing to make, peace with Israel. In 2006, Hezbollah had learned the hard way what attacking Israel could bring, Hamas was locked up in Gaza, and the West Bank was manageable. October 7 utterly smashed what turned out to be a complacent belief.
