Is China serious about peace in Ukraine?

China has unveiled a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion, even as it emerged that Beijing is considering sending 100 kamikaze drones to support Moscow’s war effort, writes Mattie Brignal.

Russia is in talks with Chinese manufacturer Xi’an Bingo Intelligent Aviation to acquire the prototype drones, capable of carrying 50kg worth of warheads, according to reports in German magazine Der Spiegel.

If the move goes ahead it would be a big step for Beijing which has so far refused to supply the Kremlin with weapons. The United States and Germany have warned China against doing so in recent days.

The drone news undercuts Beijing’s call this morning for a ceasefire and a “political settlement” to the conflict. The Chinese foreign ministry released a paper calling for respect of sovereignty (for Ukraine) and the protection of national security interests (for Russia), while opposing the use of unilateral sanctions (by the US).

While the plan is mostly a repetition of previous talking points, it underlines China’s willingness to become more involved in the conflict. In the Kremlin on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin hosted Beijing’s top diplomat Wang Yi, who pledged a deeper partnership. As Tim Marshall notes on Reaction today, after a year of war we’ve seen how limited Beijing’s “unlimited friendship” with Moscow really is. Although China blames the West for inflaming tensions and has failed to condemn the invasion, it has so far refused to provide weapons and has warned the Kremlin against nuclear escalation.

This might be about to change. Although how arming Russia would tally with Beijing’s attempt to position itself as peacemaker is unclear.

The move makes more sense if the true audience for its peace plan isn’t the West, but the Global South. Xi Jinping is trying to sell the idea of an alternative security architecture, led by China rather than the US, to nations in South America, Africa and South-East Asia not yet in either superpower’s orbit. Beijing proving it has sway in the Ukraine conflict would help the cause.

China’s manoeuvring comes a year to the day since the war began. While Kyiv still stands and Ukrainians remain defiant, Russia now occupies a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea which it annexed in 2014.

As for what will happen in the coming weeks and months, much will hinge on whether the West maintains the quality and quantity of its military assistance to Kyiv – and the extent to which Beijing chooses to support Moscow. Putin is hoping for Western war fatigue to kick in soon. Ukraine wants to gain the upper hand before it does.

Putin has made it clear he’s determined to fight on. Moscow has already started fresh offensives in the East after months of stalemate. The prospect of negotiations looks a long, long way off.

Whatever the outcome, Ukraine faces a dark future. It can’t alter geography. Russia will remain as the behemoth on the doorstep with the potential to menace the country even if a peace deal is signed or Putin is deposed. After a year of horrors, this is perhaps the cruellest thing of all.

Write to us with your comments to be considered for publication at letters@reaction.life