Ahead of dinner with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission, Boris Johnson appears to be in a very jolly mood. Tonight, the pair will meet for a classic all expenses-paid, taxpayer-funded “nosebag” of the kind Boris used to specialise in mocking when he was the Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent.
At PMQs Johnson was bouncy when faced with detailed questions from the Labour leader about the tortuous progress of the Brexit talks.
The main obstacle, the Prime Minister confirmed, is on the question of the level playing field and governance of the deal.
As Robert Peston mapped out in a thread on Twitter today, the EU sticks to wanting the deal to say that if the EU introduces a new law or regulation on, say, environmental rules or workers rights, then the UK much match it, in effect, or risk a ruling imposing a punishment beating on trade and tariffs. This goes much further than seeking non-regression on minimum standards.
As Peston says, no UK government can agree to this. All those screaming that Boris should take any deal are missing this basic point.
So, why is Johnson so jolly? There are three feasible explanations:
1 – It’s all theatre. The EU is about to concede on this key point in return for a British compromise on fish (a five year rolling negotiation, or something). A deal is almost there and it can be all but secured over dessert and pudding wine tonight with Ursula in Brussels. Hurrah!
2 – Boris is deluded. The EU is not going to move. His jollity is unfounded. Both sides have miscalculated horribly as happens quite a bit in European history. That’ll wipe the smile off his face. Classic smash straight ahead. Cripes!
3 – Johnson knows that a deal is now unlikely but this – going the extra mile, attending this dinner – enables him to emerge from dinner looking saddened and blaming the French, not for the food tonight, that will be Belgian and presumably delicious. But for a sticking point that is easily sold to Brits (barring fundamentalist Remainers) as impossible to sign up to. Get ready for no deal.
We’re about to find out whether it’s one, two or three.
