Is Ron DeSantis the President-in-waiting?
Does Trump declare early? It’s the question looming like a tasteless skyscraper over the downtown of US politics right now. An early declaration would make sense politically and legally, but also psychologically. The doubt surrounding Trump’s candidacy continues to dilute his political standing as debate about if he runs quickly turns into a debate about whether he should run. Yet, as the prospective Republican candidate, Trump would also assume a different posture in face of the January 6th hearings as well as any ongoing investigation by the Justice Department.
Trump the Candidate is a very different proposition to former President Trump. While investigating the latter can be dismissed as rehashing something best forgotten, investigating a current presidential candidate makes prosecution a matter of contemporary politics. It allows Trump to assume his favourite pose: the street-fighting underdog ready to bruise an establishment out to get him.
Yet there is another reason for Trump to declare now and that’s the growing momentum gathering behind his chief rival for the nomination, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis. For the past two years, DeSantis has effectively positioned himself as the “Donald Trump in waiting”. He comes from the same political space as the former President – indeed, was for a long time a defender of the President – but has refined his image, making him ideologically preferable for many in the MAGA base. Whereas Trump remains an advocate of Covid vaccines, DeSantis is a sceptic. On masking, he led the red states against the Covid restrictions (aided, in part, by Florida’s weather). He has also worked hard to establish less-liberal credentials in terms of gay rights. It’s DeSantis who signed the “Parental Rights in Education” bill which is better known as the bill that stops public schools in Florida from introducing matters of gender identity to students before the fourth grade (which, in English, is children about 9-10 years old).
More potently, the bill has become known as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, which speaks to the shrewd calculation behind it. It’s part of the blazing culture war raging in America but also garners considerable support from parents across the political spectrum who believe these matters should be left to the discretion of parents. It inflames the people it is intentionally designed to inflame. A Morning Consult / Politico poll conducted in March showed that 51 per cent of Americans supported the bill, meaning Democrats are, on this issue, fighting from the minoritarian position.
Extend that to the national stage and you can understand why many Republicans are pinning their hopes on DeSantis. He’s already won the public support of billionaire Elon Musk, though one should always be cautious about these things. (It’s not clear how much that has to do with DeSantis’s innate qualities as much as Musk’s expansion into Florida, where he’s building a new Starship launch and production facilities at the Kennedy Space Centre.) Vanity Fair reported that Rupert Murdoch has now switched to backing DeSantis, with Piers Morgan’s recent attack piece in the New York Post seen as a clear indicator of the shift (“He’s just younger, fresher, and more exciting than the aging, raging gorilla who’s become a whiny, democracy-defying bore” argued Morgan).
Much of that is true but it would be a challenge to most voters – or even seasoned commentators – to recall a DeSantis speech from the past two years. Better an ageing, raging gorilla than an anodyne cookie-cutter politician with the personality of a freshwater shrimp? That is DeSantis’s weakness. He is not a cultural force like the former president. Love or hate Trump, he can still command a stage as well as significant loyalty among the Republican base (DeSantis leads 71 per cent to Trump’s 67 per cent in a recent straw poll, which is close enough to be meaningless given Trump’s not actively campaigning where DeSantis is currently seeking re-election for governor).
What DeSantis does seem perfectly suited to do, however, is exploit those small schisms in public opinion, where something relatively trivial can be amplified to gain national exposure. He’s not as overtly “crazy” as Trump, yet conversely advocates more hardline positions. If Democrats spent four years whispering “be thankful Trump isn’t smart enough to be effective”, then DeSantis is their worst nightmare in a slick suit.
Yet both DeSantis and, indeed, Trump, face the very real challenge that America’s politics are now in flux after the overturning of Roe vs Wade and will remain so until the issue is settled, which is unlikely so long as the current impasse exists in Congress. For a Democrat president to change the law would require that they take control of both the House and the Senate. Their winning 52 seats in the Senate is just about possible but unlikely.
If there’s one issue that could unlock Congress for Democrats, it is surely abortion. It’s a topic that makes every other cultural division seem irrelevant (some argue guns might be bigger but that’s probably a misjudgement given the stories that will emerge as these laws take effect). Trump, himself, is privately said to be fuming over the decision, whilst publicly happy to take all the plaudits. Yet he knows it badly damages him and Republicans at the voting booth. The numbers back that up. In just a matter of a few weeks since Samuel Alito’s draft ruling was leaked, polls have indicated that Democrats might no longer be looking at a wipeout in November’s midterms which have now become a referendum a little bit less about inflation and more about reproductive rights. President Biden has thus far refused to do much to challenge the Supreme Court’s ruling beyond asking the Senate to reconsider the filibuster, which is a gesture more than realistic politics. Democrats do however have a cause compelling enough to distract from the dire economic woes. If they can leverage the public’s mood, their chances in November will be boosted.
Might this give Trump second thoughts about running? It might or, at least, it should. Irrespective of the candidate the Republicans eventually nominate, they’ll certainly be anti-abortion (or, if you prefer to wrap it up in semantics, “pro-life”) and it is unclear how any cultural warrior, even one as shrewd as DeSantis or bullish like Trump, would be able to turn it around.
It’s a sign of their skittishness that DeSantis himself rarely speaks on the subject, despite a 15-week ban on abortions just coming into effect in Florida. Pushing for an outright ban would appeal to his base but a more moderate stance might reflect his larger ambitions for 2024. It is unlikely that either stance works. And this is the problem for Republicans up and down the ballot. So much of the MAGA rhetoric worked for a relatively small number of people and in a narrow context. Matters that get right-wing talk show hosts frothing on Fox News might not translate into a nationwide election-winning strategy. The worst thing they could have done electorally is implement some of these talking points, which is precisely what the Supreme Court has now done.
Trump loaded the Supreme Court with the express intention of reversing Roe vs Wade but it also means that he and his eventual successor will be measured against the decisions of that court. SCOTUS recently ruled in favour of a teacher seen leading students in prayer on a football pitch, highlighting how America is now faced with the very real choice of whether it wants to move deeper into the 21st century as one of the world’s leading theocracies or transition back to a nation, as originally conceived, in which there is a clear separation between the church and the state.
Republicans have posed that question. They might not like the answer.