For world leaders, the coronavirus pandemic has been a lightning rod for criticism. From South America to Scandinavia, presidents and prime ministers are under enormous public pressure over their failure to control the spread of the virus. Here, Japan’s Shinzo Abe is no exception. Already the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history, he has been bombarded by the coronavirus crisis followed by a sharp economic contraction. With plummeting approval ratings, Abe now faces his toughest test yet.
Japan had all the warning signs for a colossal coronavirus outbreak, and one that would be more lethal than in its younger, more rural regional neighbours. Aside from tiny Monaco, Japan has the oldest average age of any country in the world, with one in three citizens over the age of 60. Among one of the first countries to record cases of the virus, it also became one of the first casualties of mass panic. As in Western nations, Japanese shoppers stripped shelves of essentials. Online, videos circulated showing arguments and even fights over passengers coughing on public transport. The whole country was braced for a blow that never came.
On 12 April, both the United Kingdom and Japan hit their peaks. In the UK, close to 9,000 people were diagnosed with coronavirus. But, in the East Asian nation, one of China’s closest and best-connected neighbours, only 750 cases were reported. Even more surprising, Japan’s death rate remained well below the global average.
The reasons for Japan’s success are still not entirely understood. Early suggestions that the country simply wasn’t testing enough faded as the death rate remained determinedly low. For the country’s finance minister, Taro Aso, the answer was simple – Japan was just culturally superior. Insisting that he didn’t meant to put down other countries, Aso argued that the Japanese were simply more compliant with expert guidance and supportive of the measures put in place.
Behind the sense of Japanese exceptionalism, there may be a grain of truth. Some scientists are now pointing to Japan’s culture as a reason for its success. The Vice-Chairman of the expert panel convened by Japan’s government to assess the country’s response to the pandemic, Shigeru Omi, called Japan’s culture of health awareness a significant factor in preventing the spread of the virus. As examples, he cited the almost ubiquitous norm of wearing face-masks, combined with regular handwashing and reluctance towards physical contact in public. The scenes of mass defiance to mask guidance and social distancing that have played out in the US and Europe would be unimaginable in Japan.
Amid this success, praise for the Prime Minister has been sparing. Shinzo Abe had been preparing for a year that would define his political career. As well as finally realising his long-held ambitions to reform the Constitution, Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister would have been hopeful that the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics could drive his popularity to an all-time high. Now, with both his domestic agenda and the international sporting events on hold, the opposite has happened.
Abe’s government was already under fire over allegations of that the premier offered supporters taxpayer-funded hospitality and access; since the pandemic, his approval rating has hit a new low. Prior to the coronavirus crisis, around 45% of those polled had a positive view of Abe – no small result for a Prime Minister who first came to office in 2006. Now, according to polls conducted since the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, as few as one in four Japanese people still stand by the embattled leader.
Discontent at Abe’s approach to coronavirus wasn’t inevitable. As the number of infections inevitably ticked upwards earlier this year, Abe’s cabinet increasingly drew fire for a supposed lack of clarity in guidance, as well as fears that levels of testing were too low. The handling of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined in Yokohama for close to three months, gave the opposition another line of attack. The fact that, even at its April peak, cases remained many times lower than in European countries was little reassurance for the public and disapproval of Abe’s approach spread to around half of those polled.
The long-term Prime Minister has faced criticism before but has always been able to lean on his reputation for providing stability and economic management. But if Abe had hoped that returning to a discussion of Japan’s post-pandemic economic plans would put him back on favourable territory, he will be disappointed. Only this week, Japan’s economy, the world’s third largest, entered its ninth month of recession, with overall activity down by around 8 per cent. Its colossal services sector and rigid corporate culture, coupled with continuing consumer nervousness, has left the country particularly vulnerable to the impact of the downturn.
Economic crisis isn’t the only problem Abe will have to contend with. At the same time over the summer months, coronavirus infections, which had hit an all-time low, began to tick up once again. In early August they peaked at close to 2,000 cases in a single day. This represents an unprecedented increase in Japan, although it remains well-below the highs reached by European nations and even regional neighbours like the Philippines.
What will worry Japan’s cabinet as much as its public is that infections have roughly stayed constant at that level, without sharp rises but also without evidence of the virus dying away. In a country that needs a resumption of economic activity more than most, it leaves the Government with a difficult choice to make.
No matter how Abe handles the crisis now, it is hard to see how the prime minister can simultaneously regain the trust of Japan’s voters who are concerned both about the spread of the virus and the state of the economy. With a Lower House election currently scheduled for late 2021 – a crucial test for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party – rumours are swirling that pressure is building on Abe to step down.
This makes sense – it would offer the party a chance to leave criticism over the economy and the pandemic behind. Abe is far from the only world leader whose supporters are contemplating that option but, with Japan’s coronavirus response so-far defying predictions of disaster, he may be the one with the most cause for disappointment.
